PrimeInvestor - Articles and Reports

Whats firing up gold prices and what you can do about it.
Gold
Aarati Krishnan

Whatโ€™s firing up gold prices and what you can do about it

After lying low for a while, gold as an asset class has woken up from its long slumber in the last six months. International gold prices, which fell by 3.3% in 2021 and 0.3% in 2022, have gained 9% so far in 2023 (as of April 11) and are up by 20% in the last six months. In India, gold prices recently bounced off a lifetime high of over Rs 61,000/10 grams, having gained 18% in the last six months. This recent run has made investors sit up and take notice of sovereign gold bonds, gold ETFs and other vehicles to own gold. But should you jump on the bullion bandwagon now?

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Should you invest in GoI floating rate savings bond?
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Should you invest in GOI floating rate savings bonds?

Debt investors have been so starved of good returns lately, that any return above 7% now seems like a grand prize. This is why, after the government recently announced an interest rate of 7.7% per annum on National Savings Certificates (NSC) for the April-June 2023 quarter, there was much jubilation. Apart from warranting a fresh look at the NSC itself, this rate hike promises to significantly lift returns on a Central government-backed instrument – GOI Floating Rate Savings Bonds 2020 (GOI FRSB).

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Low returns from debt funds? know how to manage this risk
Mutual funds & ETFs
Aarati Krishnan

Low returns from debt funds? Know how to manage this risk!

Low returns from debt funds? Know how to manage this risk!
After Silicon Valley Bank revealed large losses on its US bond portfolio that had eaten into its capital, thereโ€™s been a lot of social media outrage. Some folks are shocked that banks can make losses on a cast-iron investment such as US treasuries. Others seem to be appalled that Silicon Valley Bank is not alone and that many other global banks are in the same boat. This shows that investors at large have only a vague understanding of what rising interest rates do to bond portfolios.
You have also been bombarding us with questions on how interest rate risks can play out for debt funds, particularly target maturity, constant maturity and gilt funds. We try to address them here.

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NFO review: IDFC US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Funds
Mutual funds & ETFs
Aarati Krishnan

NFO review: IDFC US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Funds

US stocks and US equity funds have been quite a hit with Indian investors in recent years. Indians invest in these funds to gain exposure to global businesses (Amazon, Alphabet, Mastercard etc). More importantly, they would like to gain an exposure to the US dollar which has appreciated steadily against the Rupee over the years.
But the risks in owning US equities have become apparent lately, with the Fed on a rate hiking spree and the US economy flirting with a recession. US stock indices have lost 12-15% in one year, while US equity funds have seen losses of 6%-12%. But there has been a sharp rise in yields on US government bonds (treasuries).

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Adani stocks and index funds: cause for concern?
Commentary
Aarati Krishnan

Adani stocks and index funds: cause for concern?

After the Hindenburg bombshell tanked Adani stocks, the faith that some investors placed in index investing seems to have been shaken. With the Nifty 50 and Nifty Next 50 featuring seven Adani group stocks between them, PrimeInvestor received many queries soon after the news broke.ย 

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Should you go for the 4-5 year special deposit schemes from NBFCs now?
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Should you go for the 4-5-year special deposit schemes from NBFCs now?

With popular NBFCs such as Sundaram Finance, HDFC and Bajaj Finance revising their deposit rates in the past year, FD investors can finally look forward to better returns, after a long drought. Rising demand for loans in an improving economy, is forcing NBFCs to compete actively for deposits once again, prompting even top-rated ones to roll out deposit schemes for longer tenures of 4 to 5 years with โ€˜specialโ€™ rates. Sundaram Home Finance is offering 7.65% on its 4-year FD and HDFC has a special offer of 7.6% running its 45-month Sapphire Deposit scheme.
But are these rates special enough for you to lock in your money for longer tenures of 4 or 5 years?

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5 reasons to avoid PSU ETFs
Mutual funds & ETFs
Aarati Krishnan

5 reasons to avoid PSU ETFs

The list of top performing equity funds for the past year features a couple of unusual entries. With a return of 18-21 per cent, CPSE ETF (managed by Nippon India Mutual Fund for the government of India) and the Bharat 22 ETF (managed by ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund) are top rankers among equity funds.
This has many investors asking if they should add these passive funds to their portfolio. The portfolios of CPSE and Bharat 22 ETFs are made up of the PSU oil, energy and financial giants which are the flavour of the season. These ETFsโ€™ costs are ultra-low because they are used as divestment vehicles. Both ETFs would also seem to be โ€˜value buysโ€™ if you go by their ultra-cheap valuations. The CPSE ETF trades at a portfolio PE of 7 times and Bharat 22 ETF at about 11 times. This is a fraction of the current Nifty50 PE at over 21 times.
But does this make them worth betting on? There are five good reasons for long-term stock investors to steer clear of these ETFs.

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Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause

After bungee jumping off a cliff, it is good to wait for the adrenaline rush to wear off. Indian bond markets are in exactly this situation now. After falling sharply as rates rose, bond prices are pausing to take a breath. In our debt outlook last year we expected rates to continue their upward climb and recommended strategies to play this. During the course of 2023, we think interest rates could top out and stabilise. We tell you what this will mean for your debt portfolio.

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Why you shouldnโ€™t fall for ESG pitches
General
Aarati Krishnan

Why you shouldnโ€™t fall for ESG pitches

โ€œWhy are the so-called expert investors in India so disinterested in ESG funds?โ€. A young investor asked me this question at a recent event and it gave me food for thought. It is true that at PrimeInvestor, we are not fans of ESG investing either. We donโ€™t go out of our way to cover ESG funds or โ€˜greenโ€™ bonds and deposits, unless they offer great returns.ย 

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An AT1 Bond with high yield
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Prime Bond recommendation: An AT1 bond with high yield

At PrimeInvestor, we took an ultra-conservative approach to debt investments during Covid and just after it. But with economic recovery taking root, interest rates rising and credit offtake improving, we believe investors can shoot for higher yields by taking on some credit risk. Perpetual bonds from banks with sound financials are one option, offering good reward for risks taken. We are covering one such bond here.

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Re-rating: The X factor in multi-bagger returns
Stocks
Aarati Krishnan

Re-rating: The X factor in multi-bagger returns

Ask any new CFA pass-out what drives stock returns in the long run and heโ€™ll likely tell you that is earnings, of course! Equity analysts spend many man (and woman) hours on excel sheets, trying to model the future earnings of companies, to identify stocks to bet on.
But if you look at the journey of multi-bagger stocks over any time period, youโ€™ll find that thereโ€™s an X factor apart from earnings that drives multi-bagger returns.

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An active strategy for fixed deposits
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

An active strategy for fixed deposits

It is the fashion for personal finance gurus and social media influencers to begin their talks by dissing FDs. FDs are dumb investments, they say, before urging you to migrate to equities, or exotic things like options trading or covered bonds.
But the humble fixed deposit can serve a very useful purpose in your portfolio by acting as a source of ready liquidity and acting as a bedrock for your safe money. Thatโ€™s why we have Prime Deposits, our list of FD recommendations. It is quite possible to generate positive real returns on your FDs through an active strategy. But can an active strategy really go with FDs? Of course! Hereโ€™s how you can do it.

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