PRIME EQUITY OUTLOOK 2023
Markets
N V Chandrachoodamani

Prime Equity Outlook 2023

In our Prime Equity outlook in 2022 we said “We would expect any correction triggered by global rates to take the Nifty 50 down to the 12,500 to 15,000 range. In this range, investors should deploy cash and swoop in on buying opportunities rather than develop cold feet!”.
The equity market world over did see a correction in 2022 along these lines and as geo-political factors took hold. Indian markets too, experienced a rout in the first half of the year hitting close to our predicted range at 15,200 by mid-June.
Even so, India did a lot better than its emerging market peers. The Nifty 50 closed the year on a positive note, with a modest 4% return. Simply buying the Nifty 50 would have delivered a good 18% from June until December 2022. Our own stock picks delivered well in 2022, too.
But with global recession on the cards, still high Nifty 50 and a hostile rate scenario, can 2023 be better than 2022? For Indian markets, there are some key trends that we think can play out. We look at where the Nifty 50 could be headed, and where opportunities lie.

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A new approach to gauge market mood - The Nifty VMI tool
Markets
Vidya Bala

A new approach to gauge market mood – The Nifty VMI tool

“Is this a good time to invest in the market?” This is a question that many of you ask us when you want to deploy additional money. Gauging market mood is never easy and this is often done mostly by short-term traders. When investing for the long term, we typically tell you that it is best to invest in phases and avoid trying to time the market. Investing in phases (or call it SIP) and holding for the long term can help contain downsides and it is a proven strategy.

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Technical outlook – where the Nifty 50 could be headed in 2023
Markets
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook – where the Nifty 50 could be headed in 2023

In the previous update on the targets for the Nifty 50, the expectation was that the index could head to the next target at 19,100. Contrary to expectations, the index has been in a correction phase in the past few weeks. In today’s report, thus, we try to assess both the short-term and the medium-term outlook for the Nifty 50 index.

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Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause

After bungee jumping off a cliff, it is good to wait for the adrenaline rush to wear off. Indian bond markets are in exactly this situation now. After falling sharply as rates rose, bond prices are pausing to take a breath. In our debt outlook last year we expected rates to continue their upward climb and recommended strategies to play this. During the course of 2023, we think interest rates could top out and stabilise. We tell you what this will mean for your debt portfolio.

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Technical outlook: Can the new Nifty 50 targets be extended?
Stocks
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook: Can the new Nifty 50 targets be extended?

It’s been interesting times for the Nifty 50 in the past month! As we observed in the previous update, the Nifty 50 index remained bullish and managed to reach the first target of 18,640-18,700 zone that we had set. The index appears on course to reach even the second target of 19,100 mentioned in the outlook last month. 

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IPO Review Sula Vineyards
Stocks
N V Chandrachoodamani

IPO Review: Should you take a sip of the Sula Vineyards IPO?

Sula Vineyards is launching an IPO worth Rs 960 crore, consisting solely of an offer for sale by investors including a 1% stake sale by the promoter. The offer for sale will result in approximately 32% of equity being sold by the selling shareholders with the promoter stake at ~28% post-issue. The issue opens on December 12 and closes on December 14. Shares are being offered at a price band of Rs.340-Rs.357 per share of face value Rs 2. This being an offer for sale, the company will not receive any funds from the issue.

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Are you looking for the next HDFC Bank?
Stocks
N V Chandrachoodamani

Are you looking for the next HDFC Bank?

There is no dearth of stock market stories about the next HDFC bank or the next Page Industries or the next Dixon Technologies. In the recent IPO boom, this comparison went to the next level – comparing Indian companies with global giants.

But this kind of chasing the next big multi bagger, has seldom yielded rich dividends for investors.

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Re-rating: The X factor in multi-bagger returns
Stocks
Aarati Krishnan

Re-rating: The X factor in multi-bagger returns

Ask any new CFA pass-out what drives stock returns in the long run and he’ll likely tell you that is earnings, of course! Equity analysts spend many man (and woman) hours on excel sheets, trying to model the future earnings of companies, to identify stocks to bet on.
But if you look at the journey of multi-bagger stocks over any time period, you’ll find that there’s an X factor apart from earnings that drives multi-bagger returns.

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Technical outlook: Where the Nifty 50 & key sector indices are headed
Markets
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook: Where the Nifty 50 & key sector indices are headed

In the previous update on the outlook for the Nifty 50, we had mentioned the possibility of the Nifty 50 index stabilising for a while before resuming its uptrend as one of the possible scenarios. This scenario has played out. The breakout above the positive trigger level of 17,500 confirmed the bullish case scenario as well. The third point worth highlighting is that the Nifty 50 index did not breach the bearish trigger level of 16,400 mentioned in the previous posts.

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Should you still bank on banking stocks? Earnings review and more
Stocks
N V Chandrachoodamani

Should you still bank on banking stocks? Earnings review and more

This earnings season, the standout performers come from the banking sector. While private banks led the revival in earlier quarters, this time around, performance is visible all round – across leading private banks to old private banks and PSU banks.

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short term money
Bonds & Deposits
Aarati Krishnan

Have short term money to park? Here’s a cast iron option

Lately, it is not just India’s stock market that has been hopping all over the place like an impatient child. The bond market has been doing it too! India’s 10-year government bond yield, which sets the benchmark for all other debt instruments, climbed vertically from 5.8% in July 2020 to 7.61% in June 2022. But after that, it has been unable to make up its mind on whether to climb higher or pause for breath. 

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Technical outlook for the Nifty 50
Stocks
B Krishnakumar

Technical outlook for the Nifty 50

In the previous update on the Nifty 50 outlook, we had flagged concerns about the overbought breadth in the higher time frame and that the breach of 17,300 would trigger a deeper correction with heightened volatility. This scenario is currently unfolding in the Nifty 50 index.

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