When we published our equity market outlook for 2023, we had mentioned where pockets of opportunity could be found. The correction the market is going through provides fertile grounds for stock picking. So here, we tell you how to pick stocks in 2023, in those pockets that we had noted. We do this using our Stock Screener.
If there is one thing that has dominated the new fund offer space, and your collective interest, it is target maturity funds. Over the past year, the debt market has dealt with a swift rise in interest rates and we have issued multiple strategies to alert you on opportunities that presented themselves.
Recent instances of countries rationing food supplies on import disruptions and grappling with hyper-inflation, have prompted governments the world over to refocus on food security. With limited supply of arable land and water, the key to achieving food security lies in improving crop yields. In India, there’s a crying need to improve yields not only to secure food supplies for the domestic population, but also to cater to global export opportunities for farm products, that are at an inflection point. Companies engaged in crop protection, fertilizer and hybrid seeds are positioned to make the most of these tailwinds.
But if you’re an Indian investor looking to make a long-term bet on this theme, your options aren’t very many. There are about 20 listed companies in the fertilizer space. But the sector makes for a poor investment because of whimsical government policies that hamper growth and profitability. Listed crop protection and seed companies offer superior options. Listed agrochem players offer choices from micro to large players, with differing business models that focus on generic agrochemicals, interm
In the past couple of posts on the Nifty 50 outlook, we have been voicing a bearish view for the Nifty 50 index. This has played out as per expectations. The index almost achieved the first target of 17,150-17,200 that was mentioned a couple of posts ago. In the previous update, we had mentioned the possibility of a slide to the 16,700-16,900 zone.
Let us assess if this target is likely to be achieved or not.
In August 2021, we recommended a sugar manufacturer, well placed to play the ethanol opportunity that was set to change the dynamics of the sugar sector in India. 18 months down the line, the ethanol opportunity has played out as we expected and we have more clarity on this front. But at the same time, stock returns for our chosen candidate stand at just ~5% since our ‘BUY’ recommendation even though it rallied over 30% and also fell by almost 20% in the interim. We think, this calls for an update.
The Nifty Next 50 houses the 50 top companies by market capitalisation, after the Nifty 50. This index caught the limelight over the past month for featuring a handful of the Adani group stocks.
As we had pointed out a couple of weeks ago in our write-up on Adani stocks and index funds, the presence of a few shaky stocks in an index is not reason enough to exit it. But even before the Adani-fuelled upheaval, the Nifty Next 50’s once-outstanding performance was being eroded.
The top-used product at PrimeInvestor, our MF Review Tool, is good for anyone who wants to know our call on your fund (buy/hold/sell) and the reason for the same. It also helps you pick the funds we have a buy on, if you want to go beyond Prime Funds.
But for those of you who want to see the evidence backed by data or wish to do your own filtering, then Prime MF Screener is the only tool available today in town for you to do this evidence-based investing. If you are a subscriber – well, what’s stopping you from empowering yourself using our MF Screener to pick good mutual fund schemes?
US stocks and US equity funds have been quite a hit with Indian investors in recent years. Indians invest in these funds to gain exposure to global businesses (Amazon, Alphabet, Mastercard etc). More importantly, they would like to gain an exposure to the US dollar which has appreciated steadily against the Rupee over the years.
But the risks in owning US equities have become apparent lately, with the Fed on a rate hiking spree and the US economy flirting with a recession. US stock indices have lost 12-15% in one year, while US equity funds have seen losses of 6%-12%. But there has been a sharp rise in yields on US government bonds (treasuries).
In April 2022, we had issued a buy recommendation on a general insurance player, as both the industry and the company itself were emerging from the Covid-driven impact and were poised for growth. Since then, however, the insurance sector has lost market favour as growth has not panned out as expected.
When we gave the call of this R&D focused company engaged in the manufacture of enzymes and probiotics, the company had Covid-related challenges but showed promise of growth. It was later also pulled down by consolidation of acquisitions and costs related to new product launches. We therefore knew that the call would take longer to pay off. The stock went through a significant correction after our initial recommendation as earnings disappointed.
In March 2021, our call on the commodities fund we added panned out well. But we decided to issue a book profit call in June 2022, as we wanted to preserve some of the profits given the cool off that was visible then in commodity prices.
And as anticipated, commodities cooled off a fair bit globally. Triggered by inflation-driven rate hikes and recession fears, pre-emptive physical destocking (reducing inventories anticipating higher cost of holding inventories) resulted in lower prices. The traded Goldman Sachs Commodity index graph below will tell you that our call was largely in line with this index’s move.
With the Budget plugging the tax break on guaranteed income plans from insurers, annuity plans are back in the picture as the go-to option for investors seeking guaranteed payouts after retirement. LIC has recently relaunched its popular deferred annuity plan as New Jeevan Shanti (Plan No. 858).
Let’s see how good the plan is and how it stands against competition in today’s Prime review.
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