The price action in the Nifty 50 index, and the broader markets in particular, have been extremely bullish. The overbought scenario in the short-term breadth indicator was resolved by a sideways consolidation in price. This is a major sign of strength indicating that prices could power higher. In a downtrend or a weak market environment, the overbought breadth would typically lead to a sharp price correction, which will in turn lead to a cool off in the breadth indicator.
In the previous update that we published on the possible levels for the Nifty 50, we expected a retest of June lows. This, however, did not play out. Contrary to expectations, the index marched higher, a gain that even managed to break the then-mentioned upper reference level 16,800. Interestingly, the downside trigger level of 15,350 was not even challenged!
In the previous update on the Nifty 50 index, we had mentioned that the Nifty 50 index could retest or drop below the March low of 15,700. Since then, this scenario played out; the Nifty 50 dropped to a low of 15,183 on June 17 and has since been on a recovery path. Many of you have asked us where the Nifty 50 stands now. Here’s the view as the charts show.
We have been giving the outlook for the Nifty 50 over the past several months. With the market movements, there is no significant change that we can see from the stance explained in the earlier outlooks. Therefore, now, we turn our focus on two interesting sectors apart from the Nifty 50 – one that’s on the cusp of a recovery and the other.
In our previous update on the Nifty 50, we had indicated that the short-term outlook for the Nifty 50 index was bearish and a drop to the March lows of 15,900 was likely. The subsequent price action has been in sync with our expectation and the Nifty dropped to a low of 15,735 last week. The key question now is whether the worst is over and whether we are now headed to fresh highs in the Nifty.
In our previous Nifty 50 index update, we had built a case for a short-term bounce in the Nifty 50 index that could extend up to 16,800-16,850 range. This price action unfolded in line with expectations and the index moved well past the target zone. The question now is, will this rally continue or is there still a risk of one more leg of downside heading back to the early March lows.
Short term outlook for Nifty 50 : We have been voicing our concerns regarding how overbought the Nifty 50 index has been in the bigger time frame. And, we have been expecting a cool off or correction in the index for the last three months. The view shared in this post on the Nifty 50 outlook is playing out and the Nifty 50 index is reverting to its mean.
In our previous post on the Nifty 50 outlook, we had mentioned that the short-term technical outlook for the index was positive and that the index could head to the 18,000-18,300 range. This view played out and the Nifty 50 index hit a high of 18,350 on January 18 and has since been on a downward trajectory.
let’s take a look at whether the short-term outlook for Nifty 50 holds or has changed. The Nifty 50 was unable to clear this resistance and was rejected from this level.
After the correction, what’s next for Nifty 50? In our previous post on the outlook for the Nifty 50 index, we had shared the view that the correction in the Nifty 50 was incomplete, and we were making a case for a bounce to a lower high and one more push lower.
In our previous post on the outlook for the Nifty 50 index, we had shared the view that the Nifty 50 index could get into a short-term correction. In that post, in addition to the Nifty 50 trends, we had also made a mention of three sector indices – the Nifty IT index, Nifty FMCG & Nifty Bank – that could be instrumental in triggering short-term corrections.
This is the next update in our series on the outlook for the Nifty 50. Can there be a correction in the Nifty 50? You can read the most recent update on the Nifty 50 here. In that update, it was mentioned that the outlook for Nifty 50 was positive, and the expectation was a rise to targets at 16,695 & 17,156.