portfolio strategy

Prime Recommendation: Commodity and the rise of the old economy

In March 2021, our call on the commodities fund we added panned out well. But we decided to issue a book profit call in June 2022, as we wanted to preserve some of the profits given the cool off that was visible then in commodity prices.
And as anticipated, commodities cooled off a fair bit globally. Triggered by inflation-driven rate hikes and recession fears, pre-emptive physical destocking (reducing inventories anticipating higher cost of holding inventories) resulted in lower prices. The traded Goldman Sachs Commodity index graph below will tell you that our call was largely in line with this indexโ€™s move.

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Build your own portfolio with PrimeInvestorโ€™s super tool

PrimeInvestorโ€™s super new tool, Build your own portfolioย is a simple and powerful solution for your need to customise your portfolio the way you wish to, but without choosing the wrong funds nor going wrong on allocation! It guides you into designing a portfolio for yourself using Prime Funds, based on your inputs. Hereโ€™s more.

Build your own portfolio with PrimeInvestorโ€™s super tool Read More ยป

Prime Stock update: Prospects brighten for our small finance bank call

Covid proved be an ultimate stress test for Small Finance Banks (SFBs). As SFBs largely cater to low income borrowers comprising small businesses, small vehicle owners and other self-employed categories including micro-finance, they were among the most Covid-sensitive sectors.

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FAQs: What does the recent rate hike mean for your debt funds?

We bet you must be tired of hearing about rate hikes and debt funds and strategies! But if your queries, comments and activity on our newly-launched PrimeInvestor Community are any indications, there are still several questions many of you have over your funds.

So, hereโ€™s collecting them all and explaining what you should be doing with your debt funds and if you need to do anything different in light of the latest round of rate hikes.

FAQs: What does the recent rate hike mean for your debt funds? Read More ยป

Should you go for the 4-5-year special deposit schemes from NBFCs now?

With popular NBFCs such as Sundaram Finance, HDFC and Bajaj Finance revising their deposit rates in the past year, FD investors can finally look forward to better returns, after a long drought. Rising demand for loans in an improving economy, is forcing NBFCs to compete actively for deposits once again, prompting even top-rated ones to roll out deposit schemes for longer tenures of 4 to 5 years with โ€˜specialโ€™ rates. Sundaram Home Finance is offering 7.65% on its 4-year FD and HDFC has a special offer of 7.6% running its 45-month Sapphire Deposit scheme.
But are these rates special enough for you to lock in your money for longer tenures of 4 or 5 years?

Should you go for the 4-5-year special deposit schemes from NBFCs now? Read More ยป

Prime Stocks update: How this EV player is placed now

We had, in mid-2021, initiated a buy call on a stock that was reinventing itself from a supplier of diesel engines into an EV player. It was an early call weโ€™d made on the EV boom, which appears well-timed as electric 2-wheeler sales jumped from 16,000 units in 2018 to 150,000 units in 2021 to a whopping 615,000 units in 2022!
With the EV 2-wheeler market now clearly segmenting itself, there is more clarity on how competition and market share is shaping up. The EV 2-wheeler industry is also going through regulatory tightening.

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Fundamental analysis or technical analysis: which is better?

There are more theories on what works in stock investing than there are listed stocks. Each one seems to be successful at some point in time. However, there is still no single universally applicable formula. I am still in search of that magic formula. If any of you do find one, please post it in the comments section.

But if there can be said to be two warring camps on the right approach to stock investing, these are usually fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Both have loyal camps of followers who swear that their method works best.

Fundamental analysis or technical analysis: which is better? Read More ยป

Prime Stocks: An update on a recommendation

In one of our stock recommendations last year, we analysed a company that was moving from โ€˜tonnage to technologyโ€™. We spoke briefly about the company transforming itself from a manufacturer of forged components to a supplier of products, systems and assemblies to defence and electric vehicles. The stock delivered 27% since our call (index 8.5%) and we retain a buy. In this report we detail further on the above opportunities based on the information that the company shared with analysts last month.

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5 reasons to avoid PSU ETFs

The list of top performing equity funds for the past year features a couple of unusual entries. With a return of 18-21 per cent, CPSE ETF (managed by Nippon India Mutual Fund for the government of India) and the Bharat 22 ETF (managed by ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund) are top rankers among equity funds.
This has many investors asking if they should add these passive funds to their portfolio. The portfolios of CPSE and Bharat 22 ETFs are made up of the PSU oil, energy and financial giants which are the flavour of the season. These ETFsโ€™ costs are ultra-low because they are used as divestment vehicles. Both ETFs would also seem to be โ€˜value buysโ€™ if you go by their ultra-cheap valuations. The CPSE ETF trades at a portfolio PE of 7 times and Bharat 22 ETF at about 11 times. This is a fraction of the current Nifty50 PE at over 21 times.
But does this make them worth betting on? There are five good reasons for long-term stock investors to steer clear of these ETFs.

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Prime Equity Outlook 2023

In our Prime Equity outlook in 2022 we said โ€œWe would expect any correction triggered by global rates to take the Nifty 50 down to the 12,500 to 15,000 range. In this range, investors should deploy cash and swoop in on buying opportunities rather than develop cold feet!โ€.
The equity market world over did see a correction in 2022 along these lines and as geo-political factors took hold. Indian markets too, experienced a rout in the first half of the year hitting close to our predicted range at 15,200 by mid-June.
Even so, India did a lot better than its emerging market peers. The Nifty 50 closed the year on a positive note, with a modest 4% return. Simply buying the Nifty 50 would have delivered a good 18% from June until December 2022. Our own stock picks delivered well in 2022, too.
But with global recession on the cards, still high Nifty 50 and a hostile rate scenario, can 2023 be better than 2022? For Indian markets, there are some key trends that we think can play out. We look at where the Nifty 50 could be headed, and where opportunities lie.

Prime Equity Outlook 2023 Read More ยป

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