Charging Ahead: Should You Invest in the Ather Energy IPO?

India’s electric two-wheeler market has transformed dramatically, growing from zero to a million units annually in just six years. What started as a subsidy-fueled market flooded with cheap imports has matured into a quality-driven ecosystem dominated by four key players: newcomers OLA and Ather Energy alongside incumbents Bajaj and TVS, who together control 85% of the market.

The sector’s ability to achieve million-unit sales in FY25 with minimal subsidies (less than 10% of vehicle price) demonstrates genuine consumer adoption rather than policy-dependent growth. With industry projections suggesting EV penetration in two-wheelers will surge from the current 6% to 25-30% by 2030, the market stands at a critical inflection point. It is at this take-off point that Ather Energy is coming up with its IPO.

Ather’s IPO will open for subscription from April 28 to 30th 2025 with a price band of Rs.304 to Rs.321 per  share of Re.1 each. The company aims to raise approximately Rs.2,626 crore through a fresh issue of shares, along with an offer for sale of about Rs.353 crore, totalling  Rs.2,979 crore.  The proceeds from the IPO will be mainly allocated in following ways:

  • Rs. 927.2 crore for setting up a new manufacturing facility in Maharashtra.
  • Rs. 750 crore for investment in R&D.
  • Rs. 300 crore for marketing initiatives.

Hero Motocorp is one of the promoters of the company and is not selling in the IPO. It will own 31% post IPO while founders Tarun Mehta and Swapnil Jain will together own 10.5% post  IPO, keeping the total promoter stake at 41.5%

Business

Ather Energy, founded in 2013 by two IIT Madras graduates, has transformed India’s EV 2W market with its grounds-up approach to product development. The company has designed both the vehicle and its key components and built its own software (Atherstack), delivering robust innovation and high quality. Walk into an Ather showroom and you have proof of this grounds-up approach in its unconventional products which are head-and-shoulders above conventional 2 wheelers. 

Ather’s current lineup includes four electric scooters; three sporty and performance oriented 450 Series and the family-focused product, Rizta. These models cater to a range of customers, from biking enthusiasts to families, while maintaining a premium brand image and good customer engagement. With a cost-effective, flexible distribution model and an expanding charging network, Ather has quickly become one of India’s top EV 2W makers in terms of  user experience and rapid growth.

Ather’s factory in Hosur, Tamilnadu, has a total annual installed capacity of 420,000 units.It is in the process of building the first phase of a new factory in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, to expand its capacity to 1.42 million, in two phases. This is complemented by 233 Ather Experience Centres for sales and services in an asset-light dealership model.  

Positives

During the initial stages of EV adoption, the apprehension over risk of vehicle failures outweighed the cost savings for the consumers. Government subsidies then lured buyers as the total cost of ownership (TCO) of an EV 2W with subsidy was 55% less than a Petrol (ICE) 2W. In terms of initial purchase price, EVs were available at the same price as an ICE 2W.

But with subsidies sharply withdrawn from FY25 (From Rs.55,000 per vehicle at peak to less than Rs.10,000 now), the upfront cost of EV 2W has moved 20-40% higher than an ICE 2W in FY25. While this was unfolding,  the 2-3 years of EV experience combined with superior products addressed  consumer fears on   reliability and performance and made them embrace EVs. Sales have  zoomed to move past a million units (11.5 lakh) in FY25, without meaningful subsidies (<10% of cost).

Source: Ather Energy RHP, Page 222

As we move forward, the gap with ICE 2W is expected to narrow further as battery prices fall and unit economics for EVs improve. CRISIL projects that the EV 2W penetration will reach 28%–32% within the domestic 2W segment by FY30. The TCO is attractive enough to drive penetration from 6% to these levels despite the withdrawal of subsidies and higher upfront costs. For EV players, this would translate to a 9X growth and a robust 40+% CAGR during this period.   

Source: Ather Energy RHP, Page 228

Ather is one among the new entrants into India’s EV boom with a sophisticated product designed in-house. But, during 2019, a few OEMs like Hero Electric (unlisted) and Okinawa dominated the EV 2W market, holding more than 80% market share, with basic products built on cheap Chinese imports. Ather was the most expensive of the lot at that time. But with Govt. tightening regulations on imports and quality for  EV makers, these players have dwindled in number and share.  The last 3 years have seen new entrants like Ather and OLA and incumbent ICE 2 wheeler companies  like Bajaj and TVS conquering the market and establishing a new order in terms of market share. 

This order is likely to be here to stay with some reshuffling of shares among these players. The past churn in the industry offers clarity on the market share evolution and brings in more predictability for investors. 

Ather started off with premium products  Ather 450X and Ather 450S. These products carved a niche for build quality, technology and reliability.  But for someone looking at EVs mainly for fuel savings  and convenience, Ather was not then a compelling option. Ather 450X and 450S scooters were addressing just 20% of the market. Realizing this, Ather recently launched Rizta, a convenience scooter, at a much lower cost. With Rizta, Ather has expanded its addressable market substantially. One more platform is in the works to help Ather address the entire market.  

Ather is also working on a bike platform, Zenith, to address buyers who prefer the “form factor” of a bike over a scooter. These new platforms will incorporate a new powertrain, electronics, and chassis, while utilizing elements of the battery and AtherStack. 

Current debates highlight a puzzling statistic: EVs represent 15% of scooter sales but less than 1% of motorcycle sales. However, this comparison misses a crucial insight – many EV scooter owners previously rode motorcycles. The true picture shows consumers viewing EV two-wheelers as economical mobility solutions regardless of form factor. Consequently, the entire under-125cc segment (both scooters and motorcycles), which constitutes 75-80% of India’s domestic two-wheeler market, represents the actual addressable market for EV manufacturers.

Ather Energy is strategically positioning itself to capture this opportunity. The company is allocating a significant portion of its IPO proceeds toward a new manufacturing facility in Maharashtra, with an initial capacity of 0.5 million units, expandable to 1 million units. With its Rizta model, Ather aims to extend its reach beyond metropolitan areas into tier 2 and tier 3 cities.

Currently, Ather’s distribution network shows a strong southern focus, with 48% of dealerships and 61% of sales (in the first nine months of FY25) concentrated in this region. However, with southern India accounting for only 33% of total EV two-wheeler sales nationwide, there’s substantial growth potential in other regions. By leveraging its proven product capabilities alongside expanding its network into northern and western markets while deepening penetration in existing territories, Ather is well-positioned to match or exceed the growth rate of India’s booming EV two-wheeler industry.

Here’s a quick glimpse into Ather’s financial performance

Ather has been improving its gross margin and EBITDA and is eyeing an EBIDTA positive status by FY29 (10-11% margins) and near margin parity (13-14%) with other ICE 2 W manufacturers within a year or two after that.  

This is going to be achieved through a combination of R&D initiatives, falling battery prices and manufacturing benefits from the new plant.  

The following table gives a  sense of the cost break-up of key components in EV 2W of its performance scooter. 

Through R&D efforts, flagship model 450 has seen a 26% drop in Bill of Materials (BOM) cost, and another 450 variant by 12% since their launch. Apart from battery cells, every other part is sourced domestically. Since Ather is a performance EV 2W, NMC batteries are used. However, the company is working on LFP batteries, which are 15–25% lower in costs, for its new platforms.  

According to Crisil and Bloomberg estimates, the global battery pack price as of FY25 is USD 115/kWh and is expected to decrease to USD 80/kWh by 2030. 

Non-battery costs are also expected to decline, with the upcoming plant in Maharashtra benefiting from supply chain efficiencies, backward and vertical integration. All these provide a direction on the path to profitability for Ather. 

Key Risks

Ather’s ability to turn profitable  is contingent on EV market growth meeting expectations of 40% CAGR and delivering economies of scale for the company. It is also reliant on Ather’s ability to drive down costs through innovation  and a downward trajectory in battery prices. 

There are two key challenges to the growth assumptions for the industry  

Lower GST of 5% on EV 2W Vs 28% on ICE 2W and the high taxation of petrol has  made EVs lucrative for buyers despite higher upfront costs. If the government  decides to increase GST on EVs from 5% to the next slab or significantly brings down the taxation on petrol, that can unfavourably affect the TCO for an EV buyer. This can  affect the assumed growth rate for EVs. 

With EV 2W being priced 20-40% higher , increase in incomes and  financing options is critical to achieve EV penetration of 30% by FY30. More than 80% of ICE 2W in India are sold through loans, while financing penetration for EV 2W is at 40-45% only, though it has increased from 15–20% in FY22.  A take-off is needed in EV financing at this stage.

Battery cost is another critical element. Battery prices are expected to trend downwards with expanding EV offtake. But should tariffs or trade disruptions lead to higher battery prices or disrupt supplies, Ather’s journey to profitability is likely to be delayed.  Nearly 70% of lithium-ion battery production is concentrated in China and neighbouring Asean countries. 

Valuation and suitability

Since Ather has not yet achieved profitability, traditional valuation metrics based on current performance are not applicable. Looking forward to FY29, when Ather is projected to become EBITDA positive, the IPO’s pricing equates to approximately 22x FY29 EBITDA—notably higher than established players Bajaj and TVS (13-18x) and Hero (11x).

Our projections conservatively estimate a 25% revenue CAGR for Ather. However, as a pure-play EV manufacturer, Ather’s volume growth potential is 3-4 times (compared to industry forecasts of 30-40% CAGR between 2025-30 according to Crisil). This extended growth runway in an increasingly EV-dominated future suggests significant terminal value potential.

This investment opportunity aligns well only for investors with a late-stage venture capital risk profile, given that EBITDA positivity remains four years away. This will therefore not be an option for moderate risk investors. Nevertheless, for investors seeking EV or renewable energy exposure in their portfolios, Ather presents a compelling case based on:

  1. Demonstrated excellence in product development capabilities
  2. A focused management team with strengths in technology, product innovation, and capital efficiency
  3. Established market share with expansion potential in a rapidly growing segment
  4. IPO structure primarily comprising fresh share issuance, with proceeds largely directed toward manufacturing capacity and R&D investments

Peer Comparison

Ather is a superior option to Ola which got listed last year. Ather is looking to become a major player in EV 2W rather than diversifying into capital intensive cell manufacturing and other areas like Ola is. It aims to be both capital efficient and focused. 

This is reflected in Ather’s lean balance sheet Vs OLA’s bloated balance sheet with much higher debt. Here’s a quick glimpse of Ather’s balance sheet.

Our Take

Ather Energy represents a strategic opportunity to invest in India’s EV revolution at a critical inflection point. With its strong product development capabilities, focused management team, and established market presence, Ather is well-positioned to capitalize on the projected 40% CAGR in the EV two-wheeler space through 2030.

However, investors should approach this opportunity with clear eyes regarding the risks involved. The path to profitability is lengthy, with EBITDA positivity expected only by FY29 by our estimates (assumptions given in Valuation section). Market growth assumptions, policy stability, and battery cost trajectories all present significant variables that could impact Ather’s success.

For investors with high risk tolerance seeking exposure to transformative sectors like electric mobility, Ather Energy presents an opportunity at the forefront of India’s green transition. Conservative investors or those with shorter time horizons may want to wait for signs of improving profitability before considering an investment.

General disclosures & disclaimers

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2 thoughts on “Charging Ahead: Should You Invest in the Ather Energy IPO?”

  1. Dear Sir, What is the basis of the below sentence taken from the article ? Do we have any research or data published by the govt “However, this comparison misses a crucial insight – many EV scooter owners previously rode motorcycles”

    1. Hi sir, Govt. doesn’t publish any data on automotive consumer behavior. This is based on comments from various sources including EV dealers, automotive publications and customer feedbacks on youtube channels on why they made a switch to EV and what did they previously own.

      Thanks,
      Sudharsan

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General disclaimers: The recommendations made herein in the Research Services are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, nor a solicitation or offering on any investment/ trading opportunity on behalf of the company, AMC, insurance company, or issuer of security referred to herein.

The content and research reports generated by the RA does not constitute or is not intended to constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to an offer to buy or sell financial products, units or securities.

The information/ opinion/ views mentioned in research reports or by the RA are not meant to serve as a professional guide to the client or recipients of this Report. The research report, recommendation, or any other content published by the RA do not assure or guarantee any minimum or fixed returns to the client or recipients of the reports/ recommendations/ content.

Use of this information is at the client’s own risk. The client must make his/ her own investment decisions based on his/her specific investment objective and financial position and using such independent advisors as he/she believes necessary. The services rendered by the RA are on a best-effort basis. All information in the content or research report of the RA is provided on an as is basis. Information is believed to be reliable but the RA does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaim all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied.

While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures, information, and opinions given are fair and reasonable, PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd and/or none of its officers, directors, partners, employees, agents, subsidiaries, affiliates or business associates shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information/ opinions/ views contained in the research report and recommendations that form part of the Research Service, and/or mails, social media or notifications issued by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any other agency appointed/authorised by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Returns and performance figures mentioned in the research report represent past performance and should not be constituted to be future returns or guaranteed returns.

Any agreements, transactions or other arrangements made between the client and any third party named on (or linked to from) the Website are at your own responsibility and entered into at your own risk. Any information that you receive via the Website, whether or not it is classified as “real time”, may have stopped being current by the time it reaches you. Market price information may be rounded up/down and therefore may not be entirely accurate.

The purpose of these disclosures is to provide essential information about the Research Services in a manner to assist and enable the prospective client/client in making an informed decision for engaging in Research Services before onboarding.

History, present business and background: PrimeInvestor Financial Research Private Limited is registered with SEBI as Research Analyst with registration no. INH200008653. The Research Analyst got its registration on August 19, 2021 and is engaged in offering research and recommendation services.

Disciplinary history: There are no pending material litigations or legal proceedings against the Research Analyst. As on date, no penalties / directions have been issued by SEBI under the SEBI Act or Regulations made thereunder against the Research Analyst relating to Research Analyst services.

Details of the RA's associates: No associates.

Usage of Website Content: This Website is controlled and operated by the RA. All material, including research reports, recommendations, portfolios, ratings, lists of financial products, illustrations, statements, opinions, views, photographs, products, images, artwork, designs, text, graphics, logos, button icons, images, audio and video clips and software (collectively, “Content”) are protected by copyrights, trademarks and other intellectual property rights that are owned and controlled by the RA or by other parties that have licensed their material to us.

Except where otherwise agreed in writing with the RA, material on the Website is solely for the client’s personal, non-commercial use. Except as provided below, the client must not copy, reproduce, republish, upload, post, transmit or distribute such material in any way, including by e-mail or other electronic means and whether directly or indirectly and the client must not assist any other person to do so.

Without the prior written consent of the RA, modification of the materials, use of the materials on any other web site or networked computer environment or use of the materials for any purpose other than personal, non-commercial use is a violation of the copyrights, trademarks and other proprietary rights, and is prohibited. Any use for which the client receives any remuneration, whether in money or otherwise, is a commercial use for the purposes of these Terms.

The client may occasionally distribute a copy of a research report, or a portion of the same, from the Website in non-electronic form to a few individuals without charge, provided the client includes all copyright and other proprietary rights notices in the same form in which the notices appear, original source attribution, and the phrase “Used with permission from PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt. Ltd.”

While the client may occasionally download and store research reports or information from the Website for his/her personal use, he/she may not otherwise provide others with access to the same. The foregoing does not apply to any sharing functionality we provide through the Website that expressly allows the client to share Content or links to Content with others. In addition, the client may not use Content he/she has downloaded for personal use to develop or operate an automated trading system or for data or text mining.

The client agrees not to rearrange or modify the Content available through the Website. The client agrees not to display, post, frame, or scrape the Content for use on another website, app, blog, product or service, except as otherwise expressly permitted by these Terms. You agree not to create any derivative work based on or containing the research products and Content. The framing or scraping of or in-line linking to the Services or any Content contained thereon and/or the use of webcrawler, spidering or other automated means to access, copy, index, process and/or store any Content made available on or through the Services other than as expressly authorized by us is prohibited.

The client further agrees to abide by exclusionary protocols (e.g., Robots.txt, Automated Content Access Protocol (ACAP), etc.) that may be used in connection with the Research Services. The client may not access parts of the Research Services to which he/she is not authorized, or attempt to circumvent any restrictions imposed on your use or access of the Services.

As a general rule, the client may not use the Content, including without limitation, any Content made available through one of our RSS Feeds, in any commercial product or service, without our express written consent.

The client may not create apps, extensions, or other products and services that use our Content without our permission. The client may not aggregate or otherwise use our Content in a manner that could reasonably serve as a substitute for a subscription to the Website.

The client may not access or view the Services with the use of any scripts, extensions, or programs that alter the way the Services are displayed, rendered, or transmitted to you without our written consent.

The client agrees not to use the Services for any unlawful purpose. We reserve the right to terminate or restrict the client's access to the Website if, in our opinion, the client's use of the Services may violate any laws, regulations or rulings, infringe upon another person's rights or violate these Terms.

Prohibited content: The Website includes comments sections, blogs and other interactive features that allow interaction among clients and between clients and the RA. We call the information posted by or contributed by users “Contributed Content.” In the course of availing of the Research Services or uploading any post or comment on the Website, the client shall not post any Contributed Content that (i) contains nude, semi-nude, sexually suggestive photos, (ii) tends or is likely to abuse, harass, threaten, impersonate or intimidate other users of the Website and/or Research Services, (iii) is lascivious or appeals to the prurient interest or if its effect is such as to tend to deprave and corrupt persons who are likely to use or have access to the Website and/or Services, or (iv) otherwise violates, is prohibited or restricted by applicable law, rule or regulation, is offensive or illegal or violates the rights of, harms or threatens the safety of other users of the Website and/or Services (collectively “Prohibited Content”).

We reserve the right to cease to provide the client with the Research Services or access to the Website, or terminate your subscription, with immediate effect and without notice and liability, for violating these Terms, applicable law, rules or regulations and reserves the right to remove Prohibited Content which is in violation of these Terms, or is otherwise abusive, illegal or disruptive. The determination of whether any content constitutes Prohibited Content, violates these Terms, or is otherwise abusive illegal or disruptive, is subject to the sole determination of the Firm.

Changes to Research Services: We are constantly endeavouring to improve the quality of Research Services provided to our clients. Due to this, the form and nature of the Research Services provided may change from time to time without any prior notice to the client. We reserve the right to introduce and initiate new features, functionalities, components to the Website and/or Research Services and/or change, alter, modify, or discontinue existing ones without any prior notice to the client.

Warranty and liability disclaimer: The Website, Research Services, and all the materials and services, included on or otherwise made available to the client through this Website is provided by the RA on an “as is” and “as available” basis without any representation or warranties, express or implied except otherwise specified in writing. Without prejudice to the foregoing paragraph, the RA does not warrant that:

  • This Website and/or Research Services will be constantly available, or available at all;
  • The information on this Website or provided through the Research Services is complete, true, accurate or not misleading; or
  • The quality of any products, services, information, or other material that you obtain through the Website or Services will meet your expectations.

The RA, to the fullest extent permitted by law, disclaims all warranties, whether express or implied, including the warranty of merchantability, fitness for particular purpose and non-infringement. The RA makes no warranties about the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or timeliness of the Website, Research Services, Content, Contributed Content, Services, software, text, graphics and links.

The RA does not warrant that this Website, Research Services, information, content, materials, or any other material included on or otherwise made available to you through this Website, their servers, or electronic communication sent by the RA are free of viruses or other harmful components.

Nothing on this Website constitutes, or is meant to constitute, advice of any kind.

Indemnification: The client:

  1. Represents, warrants and covenants that no materials of any kind provided by him/her will:
    1. Violate, plagiarise, or infringe upon the rights of any third party, including copyright, trademark, privacy or other personal or proprietary rights; or
    2. Contain libellous, Prohibited Content or other unlawful material;
  2. Hereby agree to indemnify, defend and hold harmless the RA and all of the RA’s officers, directors, owners, agents, customers/clients, information providers, affiliates, licensors and licensees (collectively, the “Indemnified Parties”) from and against any and all liability and costs, including, without limitation, reasonable advocate’s fees, incurred by the Indemnified Parties in connection with any claim arising out of any breach by the client of these Terms or the foregoing representations, warranties and covenants. The client shall cooperate as fully as reasonably required in the defence of any such claim. The RA reserves the right, at its own expense, to assume the exclusive defence and control of any matter subject to indemnification by the client.

Applicable law: This Website, including the Content and Contributed Content and information contained herein, and the provision of Research Services shall be governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India, laws of the Republic of India and the courts of Chennai, India which shall retain exclusive jurisdiction to entertain any proceedings in relation to any disputes arising out of the same. As such, the laws of India shall govern any transaction completed using this Website.

Information gathered and tracked: Information submitted or collected on the Website or pursuant to the use of the Services is stored in a database. Specifically, we store the username, name, e-mail address, contact number, as submitted or collected on our Website or through the provision of the Research Services. We may use such information to send out occasional promotional materials, including alerts on new Services available, or other promotional and marketing material relating to our clients and customers.

In accordance with the Information Technology Act 2000, the name and the details of the Grievance Officer at PrimeInvestor is provided below:

Mr. Srikanth Meenakshi
PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt. Ltd., Registered office: 659, 4th Avenue, D-Sector, Anna Nagar Western Extension, Chennai 600 101.
Email: [email protected]

11. Mandatory notice:

Clients shall be requested to go through Do’s and Don’ts while dealing with RA as specified in SEBI master circular no. SEBI/HO/MIRSD-POD-1/P/CIR/2024/49 dated May 21, 2024 or as may be specified by SEBI from time to time.

12. Optional Centralised Fee Collection Mechanism:

SEBI has operationalized a centralized fee collection mechanism for IA and RA. Under this mechanism, clients shall pay fees to IAs/RAs through a designated platform/portal administered by a recognized Administration and Supervision body. This is an optional mechanism for the registered entities. At this time, PrimeInvestor has opted out of this fee collection mechanism. Therefore, all subscription payments for the Research Services will be through the modes as specified in Clause 5 of these Terms.

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