PrimeInvestor Recommendation: A passive option to beat other passive and active strategies

Should Nifty 50 be your only choice to play passive? What if a smarter fund can return better than the Nifty 50 or the Nifty 100, but:

passive option
  • is not an active equity fund
  • does not need you to take higher risk
  • gives your portfolio some diversification

Yes. And these are quant or factor-based indices. While the Indian market is only just evolving to build smarter indices than the main market-cap based indices, there are already a few good options to be had.  

A good index that ticks all the points above is the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30. Constructed based on a stock’s price volatility, the index is a better performer than the parent Nifty 100. The low volatility is the key factor that helps push returns over the long term.

The year so far has seen a precipitous fall and very rapid rally. But there are concerns aplenty on corporate profitability and the economic scenario, not to mention the global risk scenario which could see more volatility ahead. In such a situation, a low volatility index can help equity participation but with more moderate risk.

The route to the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 is via ETFs. For this index, we recommend ICICI Prudential Nifty Low Vol 30. This ETF forms part of our Prime ETF recommended list and features in our passive portfolio in Prime Portfolios.

Built to contain volatility

The Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 (Nifty Low Vol) draws from the Nifty 100, making it a large-cap index. The index is built using the volatility factor.

  • Volatility is measured by the deviation in daily price movements for the preceding 1 year. Stocks are scored and ranked based on this volatility.
  • The least 30 volatile stocks make the index. The weight of each stock to the index is based on its volatility score and not its market capitalisation.
  • Weights to stocks are capped to 3% for some stocks which have lower average turnovers. Weights to other stocks are distributed proportional to their volatility score.

How does building a portfolio based on these weights help?

  • For one thing, the weights to stocks are far more distributed in the Nifty Low Vol, as it does not use market capitalisation as the criteria. The top 5 stocks in the index have a combined weight of 23.6%.

In contrast, the Nifty 100 is based on the stock’s market cap which invariably sees stocks with large market cap dominating the index. The top 5 stocks in the index have a combined weight of 35.4%.

  • Second, it locks into stocks with minimum price fluctuations. In periods of market correction, it helps keep losses lower as the stocks do not fall as much as the parent Nifty 100 index. For instance, in the year to date, the Nifty 100 has dropped 16% while the Nifty Low Vol 30 fell just 8%. This has been helped by 20 stocks delivering returns better than the Nifty. Stocks such as Cipla, Pidilite, and Britannia rose while others such as Infosys, TCS and Hero MotoCorp fell far lesser.

Consider the data below, which takes into account returns from different periods since the Nifty Low Vol’s April 2005 base date.

Clearly, the Nifty Low Vol contains downsides much better – it falls less frequently, and when it does, it falls lesser than the parent Nifty 100. In markets corrections such as 2008-09 and 2011, the index was better than the Nifty 100 by a solid 11 percentage points.

Of course, during bull markets, the Nifty Low Vol will tend to lag. However, in the long term, the lower volatility still helps sustain better returns – simply because smaller the loss, the quicker the recovery and lower the need for a big rally. That low volatile stocks tend to deliver better is a learning when it comes to the volatility experienced in Indian stocks.

Better returns over time

It is this factor that sets the Nifty Low Vol’s returns above the Nifty 100. The index’s ability to deliver higher returns than the Nifty 100 improves over the long term as the benefits of the lower fluctuations kick in.

Rolling 1-year returns since the 2005 base date has the Nifty Low Vol bettering the Nifty 100 65% of the time. This may not appear compelling. But stretch the period to 3 years and the index beats the Nifty 100 89% of the time. Push even longer to 5 and 7 years, and the Low Vol delivers returns higher than the Nifty 100 all the time. the margin by which it does so averages to 3.8 percentage points. Since the returns of the Nifty 100 and the Nifty 50 are very similar, the Nifty Low Vol beats the Nifty 50 too.

The Nifty Low Vol’s return deviation comes in far lower than the Nifty 100 or the Nifty 50. This lower deviation results in a better Sharpe score, which measures risk-adjusted returns. The index also has a far better Sortino ratio, which measures downside volatility.

In a nutshell, if you are looking for returns to just beat the large-cap indices, you don’t have to necessarily go for the extreme choices of midcaps or aggressive indices like the Nifty Next 50.This index will do that job and is therefore a mid-option between large-cap and aggressive indices.

How to invest

There are no index funds that currently have the Nifty Low Vol as the underlying. You can invest in this index only through the ETF route – ICICI Prudential Nifty Low Vol 30. You will need a demat and trading account in order to invest in the index.

An important metric to consider in ETFs in India is the tracking error – on this count, IPru Low Vol ETF does well and has a low tracking error. The ETF does not have very high trading volumes, given that it is a relatively unknown index and therefore sees limited interest. In the past six months, traded value has averaged about Rs 82 lakh. Trading may be erratic on some days, however; there have been days where traded values have been Rs 2-5 lakh. We’re still comfortable despite lower volumes as it has not impacted tracking error.

Besides, the ETF’s market price tracks the NAV on most occasions, barring exceptional periods such as the March 2020 lows and into April 2020. This deviation has now narrowed. This also means any inelasticity in demand-supply is not sharp enough to impact price.

Suitability of the Nifty Low Vol

The Nifty Low Vol 30 index is a good option for investors with a conservative to moderate risk appetite. The index’s ability to keep downsides and return fluctuations under control and its large-cap nature means that its overall risk level is on the lower side. Note the following points on incorporating this index in your portfolio:

  • Allocate the index for long-term investment horizons of 5 years and above. This longer period is needed for the benefit of the low volatility to kick in.
  • Use it as  a portfolio diversifier. Given that the Nifty Low Vol is a factor-based quant index, it offers a strategy and sector diversification away from the Nifty 100 as well as active large-cap or multi-cap funds.
  • Combine it with other active funds to build a balanced portfolio. Consider mid/small-cap active or passive options if you have a higher risk appetite.
  • The one point you need to note in Nifty Low Vol is that it has low exposure of just 8.8% to banking & financial services as opposed to 32.5% in the parent index Nifty 100. This exposure may never match the parent as the low volatility criteria will keep the high volatile banking & financial sector exposure at bay. Hence, it still makes sense to combine this index with Nifty 50 or Nifty 100 or go for banking stocks if you are a stock picker. Or if you want to consciously avoid the financial space, then this index fits your bill.
  • If you have a larger investment amount, spread it out over multiple days to account for the lower trading volumes in the ICICI Pru Low Vol ETF. Do so when you want to exit as well.

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22 thoughts on “PrimeInvestor Recommendation: A passive option to beat other passive and active strategies”

  1. hi,
    I have started investing in this ETF, i want to know how the ETF does well when compared to Flexicap/ Contra funds like Kotak Flexi cap fund and Invesco contra funds. Can we replace these active funds with this ETF for long term investment. And the views about the recently released FOF for this ETF.
    Thanks,
    Balaji

    1. It is a supplement and not a replacement if you go by strategy. Pelase read the last part on suitability. Vidya

  2. Bhavana/Team – Thanks, excellent read. A few questions:

    1. Any thoughts on ICICI alpha low vol 30 etf? Do you think avg. volumes are now better than icici low vol 30 etf? If yes, does it make a better investment as it offers better upside as well as lower volatility?
    2. Also, in general, what ballpark volume range you would consider decent enough to invest in a etf?

    Thanks.

      1. We’ve responded to your comment. In future, request you to please use our contact form (https://www.primeinvestor.in/contact-us/) to raise a ticket to receive a timely response to any query you have. On the blog comments, we may miss them or take a longer time to respond.

        Thanks,
        Bhavana

    1. We’ve covered the index in general here: https://www.primeinvestor.in/etf-nifty-alpha-low-vol-30-nfo-winning-index/. We do not yet have a view on investing in the ETF. We do not have enough history to judge tracking error; volumes are not the only key factor to watch for. It’s hard to find ETFs with average daily trading values of over Rs 1 crore…so our cut-offs can go as low as Rs 20 lakh if it scores well on tracking error. But we generally look for trading volumes higher than this.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

  3. Hi,

    Interesting data. Can you share how this Low Vol 30 ETF has fared as compared to Nifty Next 50 Index fund over longer period such as 3 to 5 years and beyond?

    Thanks

    1. The Next 50 is by far more volatile than the Nifty 100. It rises far more, and falls more. The Low Vol is lower-volatile than the Next 50, but won’t match on rallies.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

  4. Hello Mam ,

    In the niftyindices .com website the fund fact-sheets for Nifty 100 , Nifty100 Alpha30 and Nifty100 Low-volatility30 are available . Comparing their 5 year standard deviation , the difference is not much for N100 and N100A30 ; However, its slighly lower for N100LV30 . And at 5 year total returns in descending order is Nifty100 Alpha30, Nifty100 Low-volatility30 and Nifty 100.
    Kindly help me understand ,the following points :
    1) Considering the standards deviation similar for N100A30 Vs N100 , And significant out performance by the former, Can we conclude to remove N100 passive funds out of large cap portfolio . Has there been scenario’s N100 outperformed based on your research data ?

    2) During sudden drop periods N100 index interms of P/E , P/B , can we get overweight on N100A30 as we should benefit in next bull run .( effectively replacing any large caps funds in the portfolio )

    3) In current market scenario facing high volatility , Which is better strategy between N100LV30 or Nifty 50 value20 ? ( There is no nifty 100 Value 30 framed by Niftyindices , that could have been an equivalent to other stategic indices ) .

    Best Regards,
    Vivekraj

    1. Hello sir,

      1. The Nifty LV 30 has to have a lower standard deviation, since it is constructed on the basis of low volatility.
      2. Use the Low Vol in combination with the Nifty 100 – in strong bull markets, the Nifty 100 can outperform. Depending on the sector allocation too, it can miss out on pockets of opportunities that the Nifty 100 can provide.
      3. The alpha 30 is not an investible index as yet. You have a new ETF on the Nifty’s Alpha-Low Vol index, but that has no history to check tracking error or liquidity.
      4. With high volatility, the Low Vol index is a better option. The value 20 index is also not very geared towards value given its current constituents. The Value 20 is also less consistent an index compared to the LowVol.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

    1. Bhavana Acharya

      Hello sir,

      You can invest through SIP …just that your broker should have this facility. Else, you’ll have to make sure to invest every month yourself or at the least, invest periodically.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

  5. Suhas Kothavale

    Sorry to say that the bid-ask spread for this ETF amounts to be almost 3%. Today bid price is 85.23 & ask price is 87.75. Please let me know how to decide the price at which order to be placed?

    1. Bhavana Acharya

      Hello sir,

      We don’t have specific recommendations on which price to invest. This is a good index to have for long term portfolios and investments can be made at multiple points. As mentioned in the article, volumes are an issue but this has not affected tracking error; please invest in tranches to mitigate effects of trading issues.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

  6. Vandhiadevan V

    1. If you look into portfolio overlap between Nifty 50 index fund and ICICI pru Low VOL ETF is almost 45%. Too much duplication. Hope we cannot combine this with N50 index fund.
    2. Is any AMCs planning to launch index fund for this quant fund. I have no interest to keep ETF in my portfolio due to operational reasons and liquidity issues.
    3. How this factors are designed and maintained, Is it any human intervention or Algorithms by some machines.

    1. Bhavana Acharya

      Hello sir,

      Not aware of any AMC that is launching or planning to launch an index fund on the Nifty Low Vol. The index is built simply using the designed methodology and is rebalanced on the same methodology.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

  7. How do Low vol ETFs compare with dynamic funds? Which are the Low vol ETFs apart from ICICI pru Low vol?
    Indeed a very interesting perspective and a very good analysis of the features of this category.

    1. Bhavana Acharya

      Hello sir,

      Thanks! And not really comparable because dynamic AA funds have debt which will automatically allow for better downside containment and lower volatility along with overall lower returns in the long term. The ETF is pure equity. Right now, there are no other ETFs that are built on Low Vol apart from IPru.

      Regards,
      Bhavana

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Subscription Access & Renewal: Subscription to the Website commences immediately on the realisation of payment of the Subscription Fees. Subscriptions are set to be renewed automatically at the end of the subscription period.

Unless the client notifies us before the end of his/her subscription period, or the client cancels the auto-renewal mandate within the period specified by law, that the client does not wish to renew his/her subscription, the client’s subscription will renew for the period defined by the client’s subscription plan. We will charge the subscription using the same payment method that you previously used.

Although the client may notify to us his/her intention to his/her subscription, such notice will only take effect at the end of his/her then current subscription period, and he/she will not receive a refund other than as set out under Clause 8 in these Terms.

The client may notify us of his/her wish to cancel his/her subscription by sending an email to [email protected]. The client must provide at least 5 business days advance notice for this to be implemented.

Refunds: There can be no cancellation and refund of subscription fee paid once the subscription is active, other than as stated in Clause 8 of these Terms. If the client is entitled to a refund as specified under Clause 8 of these Terms, the RA will credit that refund to the card or other payment method used by the client to submit payment, unless it has expired - in which case the RA will contact the client to proceed with the refund. If we do issue a refund or credit due to circumstances outside the obligations specified under Clause 8, we are under no obligation to issue the same or a similar refund in the future.

General disclaimers: The recommendations made herein in the Research Services are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, nor a solicitation or offering on any investment/ trading opportunity on behalf of the company, AMC, insurance company, or issuer of security referred to herein.

The content and research reports generated by the RA does not constitute or is not intended to constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to an offer to buy or sell financial products, units or securities.

The information/ opinion/ views mentioned in research reports or by the RA are not meant to serve as a professional guide to the client or recipients of this Report. The research report, recommendation, or any other content published by the RA do not assure or guarantee any minimum or fixed returns to the client or recipients of the reports/ recommendations/ content.

Use of this information is at the client’s own risk. The client must make his/ her own investment decisions based on his/her specific investment objective and financial position and using such independent advisors as he/she believes necessary. The services rendered by the RA are on a best-effort basis. All information in the content or research report of the RA is provided on an as is basis. Information is believed to be reliable but the RA does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaim all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied.

While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures, information, and opinions given are fair and reasonable, PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd and/or none of its officers, directors, partners, employees, agents, subsidiaries, affiliates or business associates shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information/ opinions/ views contained in the research report and recommendations that form part of the Research Service, and/or mails, social media or notifications issued by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any other agency appointed/authorised by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Returns and performance figures mentioned in the research report represent past performance and should not be constituted to be future returns or guaranteed returns.

Any agreements, transactions or other arrangements made between the client and any third party named on (or linked to from) the Website are at your own responsibility and entered into at your own risk. Any information that you receive via the Website, whether or not it is classified as “real time”, may have stopped being current by the time it reaches you. Market price information may be rounded up/down and therefore may not be entirely accurate.

The purpose of these disclosures is to provide essential information about the Research Services in a manner to assist and enable the prospective client/client in making an informed decision for engaging in Research Services before onboarding.

History, present business and background: PrimeInvestor Financial Research Private Limited is registered with SEBI as Research Analyst with registration no. INH200008653. The Research Analyst got its registration on August 19, 2021 and is engaged in offering research and recommendation services.

Disciplinary history: There are no pending material litigations or legal proceedings against the Research Analyst. As on date, no penalties / directions have been issued by SEBI under the SEBI Act or Regulations made thereunder against the Research Analyst relating to Research Analyst services.

Details of the RA's associates: No associates.

Usage of Website Content: This Website is controlled and operated by the RA. All material, including research reports, recommendations, portfolios, ratings, lists of financial products, illustrations, statements, opinions, views, photographs, products, images, artwork, designs, text, graphics, logos, button icons, images, audio and video clips and software (collectively, “Content”) are protected by copyrights, trademarks and other intellectual property rights that are owned and controlled by the RA or by other parties that have licensed their material to us.

Except where otherwise agreed in writing with the RA, material on the Website is solely for the client’s personal, non-commercial use. Except as provided below, the client must not copy, reproduce, republish, upload, post, transmit or distribute such material in any way, including by e-mail or other electronic means and whether directly or indirectly and the client must not assist any other person to do so.

Without the prior written consent of the RA, modification of the materials, use of the materials on any other web site or networked computer environment or use of the materials for any purpose other than personal, non-commercial use is a violation of the copyrights, trademarks and other proprietary rights, and is prohibited. Any use for which the client receives any remuneration, whether in money or otherwise, is a commercial use for the purposes of these Terms.

The client may occasionally distribute a copy of a research report, or a portion of the same, from the Website in non-electronic form to a few individuals without charge, provided the client includes all copyright and other proprietary rights notices in the same form in which the notices appear, original source attribution, and the phrase “Used with permission from PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt. Ltd.”

While the client may occasionally download and store research reports or information from the Website for his/her personal use, he/she may not otherwise provide others with access to the same. The foregoing does not apply to any sharing functionality we provide through the Website that expressly allows the client to share Content or links to Content with others. In addition, the client may not use Content he/she has downloaded for personal use to develop or operate an automated trading system or for data or text mining.

The client agrees not to rearrange or modify the Content available through the Website. The client agrees not to display, post, frame, or scrape the Content for use on another website, app, blog, product or service, except as otherwise expressly permitted by these Terms. You agree not to create any derivative work based on or containing the research products and Content. The framing or scraping of or in-line linking to the Services or any Content contained thereon and/or the use of webcrawler, spidering or other automated means to access, copy, index, process and/or store any Content made available on or through the Services other than as expressly authorized by us is prohibited.

The client further agrees to abide by exclusionary protocols (e.g., Robots.txt, Automated Content Access Protocol (ACAP), etc.) that may be used in connection with the Research Services. The client may not access parts of the Research Services to which he/she is not authorized, or attempt to circumvent any restrictions imposed on your use or access of the Services.

As a general rule, the client may not use the Content, including without limitation, any Content made available through one of our RSS Feeds, in any commercial product or service, without our express written consent.

The client may not create apps, extensions, or other products and services that use our Content without our permission. The client may not aggregate or otherwise use our Content in a manner that could reasonably serve as a substitute for a subscription to the Website.

The client may not access or view the Services with the use of any scripts, extensions, or programs that alter the way the Services are displayed, rendered, or transmitted to you without our written consent.

The client agrees not to use the Services for any unlawful purpose. We reserve the right to terminate or restrict the client's access to the Website if, in our opinion, the client's use of the Services may violate any laws, regulations or rulings, infringe upon another person's rights or violate these Terms.

Prohibited content: The Website includes comments sections, blogs and other interactive features that allow interaction among clients and between clients and the RA. We call the information posted by or contributed by users “Contributed Content.” In the course of availing of the Research Services or uploading any post or comment on the Website, the client shall not post any Contributed Content that (i) contains nude, semi-nude, sexually suggestive photos, (ii) tends or is likely to abuse, harass, threaten, impersonate or intimidate other users of the Website and/or Research Services, (iii) is lascivious or appeals to the prurient interest or if its effect is such as to tend to deprave and corrupt persons who are likely to use or have access to the Website and/or Services, or (iv) otherwise violates, is prohibited or restricted by applicable law, rule or regulation, is offensive or illegal or violates the rights of, harms or threatens the safety of other users of the Website and/or Services (collectively “Prohibited Content”).

We reserve the right to cease to provide the client with the Research Services or access to the Website, or terminate your subscription, with immediate effect and without notice and liability, for violating these Terms, applicable law, rules or regulations and reserves the right to remove Prohibited Content which is in violation of these Terms, or is otherwise abusive, illegal or disruptive. The determination of whether any content constitutes Prohibited Content, violates these Terms, or is otherwise abusive illegal or disruptive, is subject to the sole determination of the Firm.

Changes to Research Services: We are constantly endeavouring to improve the quality of Research Services provided to our clients. Due to this, the form and nature of the Research Services provided may change from time to time without any prior notice to the client. We reserve the right to introduce and initiate new features, functionalities, components to the Website and/or Research Services and/or change, alter, modify, or discontinue existing ones without any prior notice to the client.

Warranty and liability disclaimer: The Website, Research Services, and all the materials and services, included on or otherwise made available to the client through this Website is provided by the RA on an “as is” and “as available” basis without any representation or warranties, express or implied except otherwise specified in writing. Without prejudice to the foregoing paragraph, the RA does not warrant that:

  • This Website and/or Research Services will be constantly available, or available at all;
  • The information on this Website or provided through the Research Services is complete, true, accurate or not misleading; or
  • The quality of any products, services, information, or other material that you obtain through the Website or Services will meet your expectations.

The RA, to the fullest extent permitted by law, disclaims all warranties, whether express or implied, including the warranty of merchantability, fitness for particular purpose and non-infringement. The RA makes no warranties about the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or timeliness of the Website, Research Services, Content, Contributed Content, Services, software, text, graphics and links.

The RA does not warrant that this Website, Research Services, information, content, materials, or any other material included on or otherwise made available to you through this Website, their servers, or electronic communication sent by the RA are free of viruses or other harmful components.

Nothing on this Website constitutes, or is meant to constitute, advice of any kind.

Indemnification: The client:

  1. Represents, warrants and covenants that no materials of any kind provided by him/her will:
    1. Violate, plagiarise, or infringe upon the rights of any third party, including copyright, trademark, privacy or other personal or proprietary rights; or
    2. Contain libellous, Prohibited Content or other unlawful material;
  2. Hereby agree to indemnify, defend and hold harmless the RA and all of the RA’s officers, directors, owners, agents, customers/clients, information providers, affiliates, licensors and licensees (collectively, the “Indemnified Parties”) from and against any and all liability and costs, including, without limitation, reasonable advocate’s fees, incurred by the Indemnified Parties in connection with any claim arising out of any breach by the client of these Terms or the foregoing representations, warranties and covenants. The client shall cooperate as fully as reasonably required in the defence of any such claim. The RA reserves the right, at its own expense, to assume the exclusive defence and control of any matter subject to indemnification by the client.

Applicable law: This Website, including the Content and Contributed Content and information contained herein, and the provision of Research Services shall be governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India, laws of the Republic of India and the courts of Chennai, India which shall retain exclusive jurisdiction to entertain any proceedings in relation to any disputes arising out of the same. As such, the laws of India shall govern any transaction completed using this Website.

Information gathered and tracked: Information submitted or collected on the Website or pursuant to the use of the Services is stored in a database. Specifically, we store the username, name, e-mail address, contact number, as submitted or collected on our Website or through the provision of the Research Services. We may use such information to send out occasional promotional materials, including alerts on new Services available, or other promotional and marketing material relating to our clients and customers.

In accordance with the Information Technology Act 2000, the name and the details of the Grievance Officer at PrimeInvestor is provided below:

Mr. Srikanth Meenakshi
PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt. Ltd., Registered office: 659, 4th Avenue, D-Sector, Anna Nagar Western Extension, Chennai 600 101.
Email: [email protected]

11. Mandatory notice:

Clients shall be requested to go through Do’s and Don’ts while dealing with RA as specified in SEBI master circular no. SEBI/HO/MIRSD-POD-1/P/CIR/2024/49 dated May 21, 2024 or as may be specified by SEBI from time to time.

12. Optional Centralised Fee Collection Mechanism:

SEBI has operationalized a centralized fee collection mechanism for IA and RA. Under this mechanism, clients shall pay fees to IAs/RAs through a designated platform/portal administered by a recognized Administration and Supervision body. This is an optional mechanism for the registered entities. At this time, PrimeInvestor has opted out of this fee collection mechanism. Therefore, all subscription payments for the Research Services will be through the modes as specified in Clause 5 of these Terms.

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