Quarterly review – Changes in buy/ sell/ hold calls in our fund review tool

In the first of our series on quarterly review & updates, we are covering some of the key changes in our buy/hold/sell calls in our MF Review Tool. When you do so, please make sure you specifically choose the plan that you hold – direct or regular – as our calls may change in some cases between plans of the same fund.

This report is not an exhaustive list of all changes in our calls. It simply seeks to highlight our thought process in giving these calls and reasoning for some changes. You can get your own funds checked in the MF review tool.

You should read our detailed article on how to use our MF review tool before getting into the changes. We would urge all our new subscribers to necessarily go through this. If you are interested in knowing our changes in the last quarter, you can check them here (subscribers only).

Before we discuss about some of the key changes, we would like you to take note of the following:

  • New feature added:  We get a lot of queries on why we have a certain call (buy, sell, or hold) on some funds. While we analyse every single fund before we issue a call,  you can appreciate that it is impossible to provide a distinct reason for every individual fund. However, we do understand your need to know more about the reasons. Hence, starting this review, we have created a unique way to present to you the key quantitative reasoning behind our calls.

This is a new feature and you will find this under the column called ‘Reason’ in the review result page. This column is generated systematically, and highlights the most important quantitative factors that influenced the buy/sell/hold call. We have tried to highlight the negatives if the call is a ‘sell’, highlight the positives in case of a ‘buy’ and what is neutralizing the performance in case of a ‘hold’. Please note that while this represents the most prominent quantitative merits or issues in performance, we do take into account a lot of qualitative  aspects as well before arriving at our call.

  • Difference in direct and regular: While it is natural for the same fund to have a marginally different rating in direct and regular, we do find instances of a fund with sound portfolio and performance but going down simply because of high expense ratio. In such cases, we think you should get the benefit of holding the fund but with lower cost.  Hence, we have called out such funds and asked you to buy them through direct. So, please check our review tool to know if this is applicable to your funds. If you hold such funds, you can continue with them but make fresh investments through direct.
  • Where regular is better than direct: There may be stray instances of our giving a hold or sell in direct plan but a buy or a hold in regular plan of the same fund. Please DO NOT shift your investments from direct to regular in such cases. What it means is that the fund has lost out among its peers on a relative basis. So, either use alternate (direct) funds if the call is a sell or continue to hold the investment and avoid fresh investments if it is a ‘hold’.
  • Multicap fund status: You need to be aware that we HAVE NOT considered the changed SEBI norms for multicaps (which requires small-cap exposure to be upped by funds) in either the rating or the review. As the issue is being renegotiated with AMCs and fund houses will need to (and are yet to) come up with their changed category/strategy, we continue to treat them as large-cap biased funds (which they are, at present). Please note that it is going to take a while for you to hear from us on this (as we wait to hear from the regulator and AMCs).

Changes in the MF Review tool

With this, let’s move on to some notable changes in this review. The good news is that most of our calls remain the same – i.e., those that were buys have remained so, those that were sells have not seen any improvement in relative performance.

We have qualified some hold calls in the MF Review tool, giving either a timeframe requirement or asked to reduce exposure if it is above a certain limit. We have given such limits in order to reduce the impact on prolonged underperformance or risks to your portfolio, but still allow you to participate in case performance picks up. You can effect this reduction at one go or gradually, and move to another fund of your choice – either one that you hold and is a buy in our review tool, or from Prime Funds.

Debt funds

ICICI Prudential Constant Maturity Gilt – Buy from hold

Aided by the rate fall, this long duration debt fund has steadily moved up in its performance metrics to a ‘buy’ in direct and regular plans. While it might seem neck-to-neck in current performance with the other gilt fund from the same house, a far lower expense ratio enjoyed by constant maturity funds compared with gilt funds has given this fund an edge over longer period.

Its risk-adjusted returns and ability to consistently beat category average (88% of the times when 1-year returns were rolled daily for the past 4 years) also makes it a better bet than its gilt peer. It is now a buy candidate along with two other constant maturity funds (one of which is in our Prime Funds list) on which we already have a buy in the MF review tool.

Kotak Bond Short Term – Buy through direct

This low-risk short duration fund has sound metrics but is steadily pulled down by its regular plan expense ratio of 1.14% as opposed to category average of 0.8%. To show the impact, consider the fund’s 8.3% average 1 year return under the direct plan against a 7.4% in the regular plan. Its rating has remained higher under the Direct plan given the lower cost there. Hence, consider making any fresh investments in the fund through the direct plan and hold the present regular scheme (and sell at your discretion when tax treatment is favourable).

SBI Savings – Buy through direct

This money market fund (we club this category with ultra short, low duration and floater) is another instance of the direct plan doing way better than the regular, suggesting that the high expense ratio has been pulling down performance. The fund is otherwise a low-risk option with lower instance of short-term losses compared with peers. With a mix of commercial papers and deposits, its yield is marginally lower than category. It will come across as being more sedate than other performing peers such as HDFC Money Market or ICICI Pru Money Market, but scores over these peers primarily due to lower volatility and lower instances of negative returns.

Hybrid funds

HDFC Hybrid Equity – Reduce exposure to 10%, from hold

In the aggressive hybrid category, HDFC Hybrid Equity has for years together been steadily in the top quartile. But in the past year, returns have been falling behind almost all peers. We had changed our call to a hold owing to this slip. In this rating cycle, the fund has dropped further to 2 stars. On a 1-year rolling basis in the past 3 years, it beats peers less than a third of the time. Its equity calls have dragged, with calls on cyclical and value stocks not paying off. The fund can therefore remain underperforming for the next few quarters.

Given that the hybrid aggressive category itself is getting inconsistent, and that equity and debt needs can be met through other funds, we have changed our call from a hold, to ‘hold and reduce exposure to 10% of your portfolio’. Ideally, it’s better to be discerning with hybrid funds given their uneven performance.

Axis Equity Saver – Buy from hold

We have been very selective in issuing buy calls on equity savings category, given their limited use and inability to generate consistent debt-beating returns. Axis Equity Saver now makes the cut (both in direct & regular), thanks to its ability to manage corrections well. It even bettered the top-rated fund in this category in the March-20 correction. Deft management of equity through derivative calls has helped its consistency, beating the category 86% of the times. Please note that this category of funds have limited use as only seek to beat debt on a post-tax basis, given their equity-like taxation.

UTI Arbitrage (Direct) – Hold from buy

This is one of the rare cases as mentioned earlier in this article, where our call in the regular plan is better than our call in the direct. The problem arises because the direct versions of some funds are much cheaper, especially compared to their regular plans. Given that returns in arbitrage in any case are low, expense ratios make a bigger difference.

UTI Arbitrage’s expense is slightly more expensive by about 3-10 basis points compared to the better-rated funds in the category under direct. It’s higher cost has also pulled down its consistency score. There aren’t several options in this category, since the ones that are consistent and less volatile are few. Even marginal differences in performance metrics can matter. So if you were to choose an arbitrage fund in the direct plan, there are better choices available.

Equity funds

Canara Robeco Bluechip Equity – Buy from hold

In the large-cap category, we are selective since the Nifty 100 proves a better alternative in most cases. Canara Robeco Large-Cap, though, is now a buy in both direct and regular, taking the total number of large-cap funds we have a buy on to three. The fund has been steadily improving in performance (in line with other equity funds from the AMC).

We have been wary of changing our call on the fund earlier, given the nature of its category. But sustained strong performance makes it worthy now. The fund is among the few that is delivering reasonable alpha over the index, while being less volatile as well. Its short-term and long-term outperformance against the Nifty 100 has been improving from early 2019 onwards and the fund is now beating the index by a margin better than any other large-cap fund. Do note, however, that the AMC takes similar stock calls across its equity funds. If you already hold equity funds from the same AMC, you may be duplicating so run a portfolio check first.

IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) – Sell from hold

This aggressive tax-saving fund captures upsides well but loses it by failing to contain downsides. Its high volatility also makes it a see-sawing performer (in direct & regular). Barring short spurts of outperformance, it has been steadily underperforming category peers even on a rolling 3-year return basis. An average 44% holdings in mid and small-cap over longer periods compared with average 25% in category has meant that it took a prolonged hit in the mid and small-cap correction of 2019 and hasn’t managed to bounce back from that, despite the rally post March.

HDFC Growth Opportunities – Sell from hold

This large-and-midcap fund has never been a great performer. But its 1-year consistency was at least slightly better than some other funds. But we have observed no performance improvement in either this or any other metric over time. Even in the current market rally, its 1-year return falls short of peer average. Its average 3-year return is worse than peers by a good 4 percentage point margin and it barely delivers much on a risk-adjusted basis. Holding on to the fund can therefore be futile and cause more opportunity loss. For this reason, we have moved the call to a sell in both regular and direct.

Reduce exposure to 10% of portfolio for:

  • Franklin India Equity
  • Quantum Long Term Equity
  • HDFC Equity
  • Franklin India Focused Equity

For the above top performers of yesteryears, we had given a long rope to underperformance due to their strategy and the AMC’s focus on long-term, value-driven stocks. Their portfolios suggest that any performance turnaround is going to take a while longer. The underperformance has been long and the margin of this underperformance compared to the category is wide at 3-4 percentage points on a 3-year basis and more than double that on a 1-year basis. This means that it will be harder to recoup the opportunity loss even if performance does improve. For this reason, we have given a call to reduce the impact of such underperformance on your portfolio.

L&T India Value – Sell from hold

This once aggressive mid-cap biased fund lost the plot ever since it moved to more large caps (under the value category) post SEBI categorization. Pre-categorization, it was not true value although labelled itself so. Post SEBI categories, it had to shed some of its more aggressive growth-oriented midcaps and shift to large caps. And with value underperforming up until the 2020 correction, the fund trailed its peers (like many other value funds, we compare this fund with multicaps) and shows highly inconsistent performance now. It now beats the Nifty 500 just 19% of the times (direct plan) on a rolling 1-year basis.

You may also want to look at the change in our ratings. Please note that our Prime Ratings is not a recommendation. It only tells you where your funds’ performance stand in relation to peers. Only our review tool is our recommendation on a fund. Our review tool is available for trial users and subscribers only.

P.S. Our next quarterly review report series will be on Prime funds – our recommended list and the changes there. This is exclusively for subscribers only. Subscribe today if you haven’t, to access the reports.

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13 thoughts on “Quarterly review – Changes in buy/ sell/ hold calls in our fund review tool”

  1. Considering 50:50 allocation to equity and debt would reduce exposure to 10% of the portfolio mean 5% of total portfolio?

    1. If you are asking about reducing a specific fund to 10% – it means if your fund is over 10% of total portfolio reduce it to 10%. Vidya

  2. Canara Robeco Large Cap – Buy from hold.
    I don’t see this fund in Mutual Funds Explorer Tool.

    1. Hello sir,

      Sorry, our mistake 🙂 Canara Robeco Bluechip Equity – it is a large-cap fund, and we mistakenly put that in the name. Thanks for pointing it out.

      Regards,
      Bhavana

  3. Venkateswaran Muthukrishnan

    “Reduce exposure to 10% for:
    Franklin India Equity
    Quantum Long Term Equity
    HDFC Equity
    Franklin India Focused Equity”

    Does it mean that you have investments for Rs100, you reduce it to Rs10 now?

    1. Hello sir,

      No, it means reduce exposure of the fund to 10% of portfolio. I’ve edited the post to reflect this. Thanks!

      Regards,
      Bhavana

  4. Is there a way to see the change in rating for funds? How can I see only funds for which the rating has changed?

    1. Hello sir,

      No, at present, we do not have the feature of showing a fund’s previous ratings. We are considering adding this aspect in the future 🙂

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

      1. Thank you. Really appreciate for the responsiveness of your team. Would look forward to see history of fund ratings.

Comments are closed.

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Although the client may notify to us his/her intention to his/her subscription, such notice will only take effect at the end of his/her then current subscription period, and he/she will not receive a refund other than as set out under Clause 8 in these Terms.

The client may notify us of his/her wish to cancel his/her subscription by sending an email to [email protected]. The client must provide at least 5 business days advance notice for this to be implemented.

Refunds: There can be no cancellation and refund of subscription fee paid once the subscription is active, other than as stated in Clause 8 of these Terms. If the client is entitled to a refund as specified under Clause 8 of these Terms, the RA will credit that refund to the card or other payment method used by the client to submit payment, unless it has expired - in which case the RA will contact the client to proceed with the refund. If we do issue a refund or credit due to circumstances outside the obligations specified under Clause 8, we are under no obligation to issue the same or a similar refund in the future.

General disclaimers: The recommendations made herein in the Research Services are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, nor a solicitation or offering on any investment/ trading opportunity on behalf of the company, AMC, insurance company, or issuer of security referred to herein.

The content and research reports generated by the RA does not constitute or is not intended to constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to an offer to buy or sell financial products, units or securities.

The information/ opinion/ views mentioned in research reports or by the RA are not meant to serve as a professional guide to the client or recipients of this Report. The research report, recommendation, or any other content published by the RA do not assure or guarantee any minimum or fixed returns to the client or recipients of the reports/ recommendations/ content.

Use of this information is at the client’s own risk. The client must make his/ her own investment decisions based on his/her specific investment objective and financial position and using such independent advisors as he/she believes necessary. The services rendered by the RA are on a best-effort basis. All information in the content or research report of the RA is provided on an as is basis. Information is believed to be reliable but the RA does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaim all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied.

While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures, information, and opinions given are fair and reasonable, PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd and/or none of its officers, directors, partners, employees, agents, subsidiaries, affiliates or business associates shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information/ opinions/ views contained in the research report and recommendations that form part of the Research Service, and/or mails, social media or notifications issued by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any other agency appointed/authorised by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Returns and performance figures mentioned in the research report represent past performance and should not be constituted to be future returns or guaranteed returns.

Any agreements, transactions or other arrangements made between the client and any third party named on (or linked to from) the Website are at your own responsibility and entered into at your own risk. Any information that you receive via the Website, whether or not it is classified as “real time”, may have stopped being current by the time it reaches you. Market price information may be rounded up/down and therefore may not be entirely accurate.

The purpose of these disclosures is to provide essential information about the Research Services in a manner to assist and enable the prospective client/client in making an informed decision for engaging in Research Services before onboarding.

History, present business and background: PrimeInvestor Financial Research Private Limited is registered with SEBI as Research Analyst with registration no. INH200008653. The Research Analyst got its registration on August 19, 2021 and is engaged in offering research and recommendation services.

Disciplinary history: There are no pending material litigations or legal proceedings against the Research Analyst. As on date, no penalties / directions have been issued by SEBI under the SEBI Act or Regulations made thereunder against the Research Analyst relating to Research Analyst services.

Details of the RA's associates: No associates.

Usage of Website Content: This Website is controlled and operated by the RA. All material, including research reports, recommendations, portfolios, ratings, lists of financial products, illustrations, statements, opinions, views, photographs, products, images, artwork, designs, text, graphics, logos, button icons, images, audio and video clips and software (collectively, “Content”) are protected by copyrights, trademarks and other intellectual property rights that are owned and controlled by the RA or by other parties that have licensed their material to us.

Except where otherwise agreed in writing with the RA, material on the Website is solely for the client’s personal, non-commercial use. Except as provided below, the client must not copy, reproduce, republish, upload, post, transmit or distribute such material in any way, including by e-mail or other electronic means and whether directly or indirectly and the client must not assist any other person to do so.

Without the prior written consent of the RA, modification of the materials, use of the materials on any other web site or networked computer environment or use of the materials for any purpose other than personal, non-commercial use is a violation of the copyrights, trademarks and other proprietary rights, and is prohibited. Any use for which the client receives any remuneration, whether in money or otherwise, is a commercial use for the purposes of these Terms.

The client may occasionally distribute a copy of a research report, or a portion of the same, from the Website in non-electronic form to a few individuals without charge, provided the client includes all copyright and other proprietary rights notices in the same form in which the notices appear, original source attribution, and the phrase “Used with permission from PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt. Ltd.”

While the client may occasionally download and store research reports or information from the Website for his/her personal use, he/she may not otherwise provide others with access to the same. The foregoing does not apply to any sharing functionality we provide through the Website that expressly allows the client to share Content or links to Content with others. In addition, the client may not use Content he/she has downloaded for personal use to develop or operate an automated trading system or for data or text mining.

The client agrees not to rearrange or modify the Content available through the Website. The client agrees not to display, post, frame, or scrape the Content for use on another website, app, blog, product or service, except as otherwise expressly permitted by these Terms. You agree not to create any derivative work based on or containing the research products and Content. The framing or scraping of or in-line linking to the Services or any Content contained thereon and/or the use of webcrawler, spidering or other automated means to access, copy, index, process and/or store any Content made available on or through the Services other than as expressly authorized by us is prohibited.

The client further agrees to abide by exclusionary protocols (e.g., Robots.txt, Automated Content Access Protocol (ACAP), etc.) that may be used in connection with the Research Services. The client may not access parts of the Research Services to which he/she is not authorized, or attempt to circumvent any restrictions imposed on your use or access of the Services.

As a general rule, the client may not use the Content, including without limitation, any Content made available through one of our RSS Feeds, in any commercial product or service, without our express written consent.

The client may not create apps, extensions, or other products and services that use our Content without our permission. The client may not aggregate or otherwise use our Content in a manner that could reasonably serve as a substitute for a subscription to the Website.

The client may not access or view the Services with the use of any scripts, extensions, or programs that alter the way the Services are displayed, rendered, or transmitted to you without our written consent.

The client agrees not to use the Services for any unlawful purpose. We reserve the right to terminate or restrict the client's access to the Website if, in our opinion, the client's use of the Services may violate any laws, regulations or rulings, infringe upon another person's rights or violate these Terms.

Prohibited content: The Website includes comments sections, blogs and other interactive features that allow interaction among clients and between clients and the RA. We call the information posted by or contributed by users “Contributed Content.” In the course of availing of the Research Services or uploading any post or comment on the Website, the client shall not post any Contributed Content that (i) contains nude, semi-nude, sexually suggestive photos, (ii) tends or is likely to abuse, harass, threaten, impersonate or intimidate other users of the Website and/or Research Services, (iii) is lascivious or appeals to the prurient interest or if its effect is such as to tend to deprave and corrupt persons who are likely to use or have access to the Website and/or Services, or (iv) otherwise violates, is prohibited or restricted by applicable law, rule or regulation, is offensive or illegal or violates the rights of, harms or threatens the safety of other users of the Website and/or Services (collectively “Prohibited Content”).

We reserve the right to cease to provide the client with the Research Services or access to the Website, or terminate your subscription, with immediate effect and without notice and liability, for violating these Terms, applicable law, rules or regulations and reserves the right to remove Prohibited Content which is in violation of these Terms, or is otherwise abusive, illegal or disruptive. The determination of whether any content constitutes Prohibited Content, violates these Terms, or is otherwise abusive illegal or disruptive, is subject to the sole determination of the Firm.

Changes to Research Services: We are constantly endeavouring to improve the quality of Research Services provided to our clients. Due to this, the form and nature of the Research Services provided may change from time to time without any prior notice to the client. We reserve the right to introduce and initiate new features, functionalities, components to the Website and/or Research Services and/or change, alter, modify, or discontinue existing ones without any prior notice to the client.

Warranty and liability disclaimer: The Website, Research Services, and all the materials and services, included on or otherwise made available to the client through this Website is provided by the RA on an “as is” and “as available” basis without any representation or warranties, express or implied except otherwise specified in writing. Without prejudice to the foregoing paragraph, the RA does not warrant that:

  • This Website and/or Research Services will be constantly available, or available at all;
  • The information on this Website or provided through the Research Services is complete, true, accurate or not misleading; or
  • The quality of any products, services, information, or other material that you obtain through the Website or Services will meet your expectations.

The RA, to the fullest extent permitted by law, disclaims all warranties, whether express or implied, including the warranty of merchantability, fitness for particular purpose and non-infringement. The RA makes no warranties about the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or timeliness of the Website, Research Services, Content, Contributed Content, Services, software, text, graphics and links.

The RA does not warrant that this Website, Research Services, information, content, materials, or any other material included on or otherwise made available to you through this Website, their servers, or electronic communication sent by the RA are free of viruses or other harmful components.

Nothing on this Website constitutes, or is meant to constitute, advice of any kind.

Indemnification: The client:

  1. Represents, warrants and covenants that no materials of any kind provided by him/her will:
    1. Violate, plagiarise, or infringe upon the rights of any third party, including copyright, trademark, privacy or other personal or proprietary rights; or
    2. Contain libellous, Prohibited Content or other unlawful material;
  2. Hereby agree to indemnify, defend and hold harmless the RA and all of the RA’s officers, directors, owners, agents, customers/clients, information providers, affiliates, licensors and licensees (collectively, the “Indemnified Parties”) from and against any and all liability and costs, including, without limitation, reasonable advocate’s fees, incurred by the Indemnified Parties in connection with any claim arising out of any breach by the client of these Terms or the foregoing representations, warranties and covenants. The client shall cooperate as fully as reasonably required in the defence of any such claim. The RA reserves the right, at its own expense, to assume the exclusive defence and control of any matter subject to indemnification by the client.

Applicable law: This Website, including the Content and Contributed Content and information contained herein, and the provision of Research Services shall be governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India, laws of the Republic of India and the courts of Chennai, India which shall retain exclusive jurisdiction to entertain any proceedings in relation to any disputes arising out of the same. As such, the laws of India shall govern any transaction completed using this Website.

Information gathered and tracked: Information submitted or collected on the Website or pursuant to the use of the Services is stored in a database. Specifically, we store the username, name, e-mail address, contact number, as submitted or collected on our Website or through the provision of the Research Services. We may use such information to send out occasional promotional materials, including alerts on new Services available, or other promotional and marketing material relating to our clients and customers.

In accordance with the Information Technology Act 2000, the name and the details of the Grievance Officer at PrimeInvestor is provided below:

Mr. Srikanth Meenakshi
PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt. Ltd., Registered office: 659, 4th Avenue, D-Sector, Anna Nagar Western Extension, Chennai 600 101.
Email: [email protected]

11. Mandatory notice:

Clients shall be requested to go through Do’s and Don’ts while dealing with RA as specified in SEBI master circular no. SEBI/HO/MIRSD-POD-1/P/CIR/2024/49 dated May 21, 2024 or as may be specified by SEBI from time to time.

12. Optional Centralised Fee Collection Mechanism:

SEBI has operationalized a centralized fee collection mechanism for IA and RA. Under this mechanism, clients shall pay fees to IAs/RAs through a designated platform/portal administered by a recognized Administration and Supervision body. This is an optional mechanism for the registered entities. At this time, PrimeInvestor has opted out of this fee collection mechanism. Therefore, all subscription payments for the Research Services will be through the modes as specified in Clause 5 of these Terms.

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