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In the previous update on the Nifty 50 index, we had mentioned that the Nifty 50 index could retest or drop below the March low of 15,700. Since then, this scenario played out; the Nifty 50 dropped to a low of 15,183 on June 17 and has since been on a recovery path. Many of you have asked us where the Nifty 50 stands now. Here’s the view as the charts show.
As per the above table, we are not yet in a bear market, though it would seem to be just round the corner. But what the data shows is that the period taken to recover from the onset of a bear market back to regaining the previous peaks can be as short as three months or as long as 74 months.
The PrimeInvestor Auto++ smallcase puts together auto companies, auto component players, and other diversified companies that are involved in the design and technology transformations unfolding in the industry.
This stock had corrected 30% since our recommendation. We initiated our call after the Q1FY22 results, in September 2021. You can consider averaging the stock now (Rs 267.5 at the time of this call). We explain the rationale below.
In India too, industrial sector stocks have been doing much better in the recent past despite a sharp market correction, on the hope of an investment-led growth. We are picking up a major player from the industrial space that has its share of business from the US market as well, while transforming itself to a products and technology player.
We have been giving the outlook for the Nifty 50 over the past several months. With the market movements, there is no significant change that we can see from the stance explained in the earlier outlooks. Therefore, now, we turn our focus on two interesting sectors apart from the Nifty 50 – one that’s on the cusp of a recovery and the other.
A tactical call to play the cement recovery.
When markets are in a correcting mode, one sector that jumps to mind for its ‘defensive’ qualities is the FMCG sector. With their staple business, non-discretionary spending holds revenues in good stead. But FMCG companies have instead corrected about 20% from their October ’21 peak. Against the Nifty 50, they have been underperformers over the past two years. So, what gives?
In September last year, we had given a Buy call on a unique capital goods player that has delivered in a tough market, that has picked up newer opportunities and has the potential to grow well. With the March 2022 quarter results out, markets have reacted.
Last month, we analysed the cement industry in detail. In this analysis, we’d noted a few points – one, that there has been consolidation in the space, two, that companies had been deleveraging, and three, that margins have been under threat owing to pricier energy and inputs.
In our previous update on the Nifty 50, we had indicated that the short-term outlook for the Nifty 50 index was bearish and a drop to the March lows of 15,900 was likely. The subsequent price action has been in sync with our expectation and the Nifty dropped to a low of 15,735 last week. The key question now is whether the worst is over and whether we are now headed to fresh highs in the Nifty.
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