
Prime Stock Recommendation: A cement maker in a sweet spot
A tactical call to play the cement recovery.
A tactical call to play the cement recovery.
When markets are in a correcting mode, one sector that jumps to mind for its ‘defensive’ qualities is the FMCG sector. With their staple business, non-discretionary spending holds revenues in good stead. But FMCG companies have instead corrected about 20% from their October ’21 peak. Against the Nifty 50, they have been underperformers over the past two years. So, what gives?
In September last year, we had given a Buy call on a unique capital goods player that has delivered in a tough market, that has picked up newer opportunities and has the potential to grow well. With the March 2022 quarter results out, markets have reacted.
Last month, we analysed the cement industry in detail. In this analysis, we’d noted a few points – one, that there has been consolidation in the space, two, that companies had been deleveraging, and three, that margins have been under threat owing to pricier energy and inputs.
In our previous update on the Nifty 50, we had indicated that the short-term outlook for the Nifty 50 index was bearish and a drop to the March lows of 15,900 was likely. The subsequent price action has been in sync with our expectation and the Nifty dropped to a low of 15,735 last week. The key question now is whether the worst is over and whether we are now headed to fresh highs in the Nifty.
A year ago, when we did the result review of the IT stocks after the Q4FY21 earnings, the sector was moving to a new orbit on the back of robust growth prospects.
The Covid-19 pandemic increased the urgency of digital transformation for enterprises across the globe, and this paved the way for the IT sector to emerge as a strong growth story. Since we wrote about this last year, the sector has delivered stellar earnings performance during and post pandemic.
Godrej Agrovet is a conglomerate with businesses spread across the agriculture and protein supply chain. It is in animal feeds, palm oil extraction, agrochemicals, dairy and frozen foods. The business has commoditised parts, seasonal parts and valued added parts.
The Indian government, deciding to take its chances with market moods, has launched the long-awaited IPO of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC). This is entirely an offer for sale by the government to offload 3.5% of its holdings (2.21 crore shares) to the public, at an offer price band of Rs 902-949. LIC will not receive any proceeds from the sale. Retail bidders will get a Rs 45 discount while LIC’s policyholders will get a Rs 60 discount.
A few weeks ago, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced the acquisition of Alleghany Corporation with a $11.6 billion deal, its largest buy-out deal in six years. The decision has come at a time when the general insurance industry has faced headwinds in the last 2-3 years. But there is no one better than Buffett to understand the prospects and valuation of an insurance company. Berkshire Hathaway owes its long-term wealth creation success to excellent underwriting skills in its insurance subsidiaries and clever usage of the float from insurance to build a long-term equity portfolio.
In our previous Nifty 50 index update, we had built a case for a short-term bounce in the Nifty 50 index that could extend up to 16,800-16,850 range. This price action unfolded in line with expectations and the index moved well past the target zone. The question now is, will this rally continue or is there still a risk of one more leg of downside heading back to the early March lows.
India’s cement industry has always been a good proxy for the core economy, with steady volume growth and players enjoying considerable pricing power unlike other commodities. With cement industry leaders such as UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements, Dalmia Bharat and Birla Corporation correcting between 10% and 20% in the last 3 months, could there be an opportunity? We take a deep dive into the cement industry to assess its prospects.
When good quality businesses get beaten down in the markets, unexpected corporate actions and events sometimes act as a trigger to their re-rating. Is the HDFC merger with HDFC Bank a positive?
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