Mankind Pharma, which operates in the domestic pharmaceuticals space, opens its Rs 4300 core IPO today. The issue is priced at a band of Rs 1,026 – Rs 1,080 per share of face value Re.1/-.
A 14% fall in INFOSYS (INFY) in just a week is not something that you expect, especially when the index itself fell under 1% over the same period. But then, when markets are disappointed, they don’t cry, they rage.
Picking a stock in the pharma space is not easy. The businesses are complex and can leave you feeling like you are preparing for a mini-MBBS. What’s more – no two companies are alike. To compound matters, it is also a heavily regulated space (and rightly so) with complex supply chains very often, heavily reliant on China. Not only do most end products have names that sound like tongue twisters but can be governed by complex patent regulations.
When markets make merry, many stocks have seemingly compelling stories even for entering at peak valuation. And the market is fine with stretched valuations to accommodate such stories. In other words, every market-favoured stock appears to scream – buy me at any price.
But when challenges emerge, the same market starts reacting so sharply that investors who bought into the story midway start making losses. Yes, there isn’t a bigger disaster for stock market investors than earnings and PE multiples contracting together.
The recent furore surrounding the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in the US has exposed that while banking is a favourite sector with stock market investors, the fragility of the banking business is far from well-understood. Banks are held up as the engines of economic growth. Whichever sector grows, the banking sector ultimately gains. Banks are also accorded a higher valuation than most sectors during bull phases. In good times, banks made up a 40% plus weight in our leading stock market indices.
In February last year, we had issued a buy call on the stock of a premier fashion player housing a vast number of national brands. The steps this company had taken to expand its offering range, a return of focus on margins, and the consumption promise all propelled the call. the stock rallied handsomely as well, post our call.
However, owing to two factors, the stock has since given up nearly 40% from its high and is currently about 25% below our original call price.
Indian markets have corrected about 10% (Nifty 50) from the last peak in December 2022. But many stocks have fallen much more than the bellwether index. This has provided an opportunity to revisit some of our recommended stocks – to either identify averaging opportunities or move them to a BUY from a HOLD.
When we published our equity market outlook for 2023, we had mentioned where pockets of opportunity could be found. The correction the market is going through provides fertile grounds for stock picking. So here, we tell you how to pick stocks in 2023, in those pockets that we had noted. We do this using our Stock Screener.
Recent instances of countries rationing food supplies on import disruptions and grappling with hyper-inflation, have prompted governments the world over to refocus on food security. With limited supply of arable land and water, the key to achieving food security lies in improving crop yields. In India, there’s a crying need to improve yields not only to secure food supplies for the domestic population, but also to cater to global export opportunities for farm products, that are at an inflection point. Companies engaged in crop protection, fertilizer and hybrid seeds are positioned to make the most of these tailwinds.
But if you’re an Indian investor looking to make a long-term bet on this theme, your options aren’t very many. There are about 20 listed companies in the fertilizer space. But the sector makes for a poor investment because of whimsical government policies that hamper growth and profitability. Listed crop protection and seed companies offer superior options. Listed agrochem players offer choices from micro to large players, with differing business models that focus on generic agrochemicals, interm
In the past couple of posts on the Nifty 50 outlook, we have been voicing a bearish view for the Nifty 50 index. This has played out as per expectations. The index almost achieved the first target of 17,150-17,200 that was mentioned a couple of posts ago. In the previous update, we had mentioned the possibility of a slide to the 16,700-16,900 zone.
Let us assess if this target is likely to be achieved or not.
In August 2021, we recommended a sugar manufacturer, well placed to play the ethanol opportunity that was set to change the dynamics of the sugar sector in India. 18 months down the line, the ethanol opportunity has played out as we expected and we have more clarity on this front. But at the same time, stock returns for our chosen candidate stand at just ~5% since our ‘BUY’ recommendation even though it rallied over 30% and also fell by almost 20% in the interim. We think, this calls for an update.
In April 2022, we had issued a buy recommendation on a general insurance player, as both the industry and the company itself were emerging from the Covid-driven impact and were poised for growth. Since then, however, the insurance sector has lost market favour as growth has not panned out as expected.
Hold On
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