Share on whatsapp
Whatsapp share
Share on twitter
Tweet it out
Share on facebook
Share on FB
Share on linkedin
Post on LinkedIn

Fiscal spending and debt funding appear to be the primary gears that Budget 2021 plans to use in full throttle – in the hope of reviving the economy.

The big picture first. Fiscal deficit at 9.5% of GDP for FY-21 will not ease any time soon. It will take a slow path to reducing to 4.5% by FY-26. What does this mean? The thus-far fiscally-prudent government has decided it is necessary to spend to spur growth, with a slow glide path to fiscal prudence. And the stock markets love this!

Budget 2021

The budget proposes to continue the Rs 12 lakh crore of gross borrowing from the market for FY-22, similar to the figure for FY-21 (planned) – a year hit by the pandemic. The debt market instantly reacted with the yield of 10-year bonds moving up 1.87% to 6.06% (when we wrote this). But this was not the only big ‘debt’ related news.

 Of the total spending of Rs 34.8 lakh crore, capex spending at Rs 5.54 lakh crore is a good 34.5% over the budgeted estimate of 2020-21. The budget has found it necessary to come up with novel ways to finance the spend, especially the capex spends. Let’s list some of them here:

#1 Development Financial Institution for infra-financing

Budget 2021 has proposed to introduce a bill to set up a Development Financial Institution exclusively to finance infrastructure. With a capitalization of Rs 20,000 crore, this institution is expected to lend at least Rs 5 lakh crore in 3 years. This is expected to provide a significant boost to the cash-strapped infrastructure space, and can prove beneficial as infrastructure financing typically involve long gestation periods that banks find difficult to adequately fund.

#2 Bad bank to free-up good banks

With banks struggling to clean up their bad loans, the budget proposes to clear the mess with the formation of an asset reconstruction company and asset management company to take over the bad loans of banks and eventually dispose them off to those who have the risk appetite – such as Alternate Investment Funds. This long-expected proposal will free up bank balance sheets and is therefore expected to spur bank lending at a time when banks have turned risk-averse to lending.

#3 New infrastructure funded by existing infrastructure assets

The Budget proposes a “National Monetization Pipeline” of potential brownfield infrastructure assets. In other words, Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvIT) would be formed on existing assets of key infrastructure owners such as NHAI, PGCIL, GAIL, Railways and Airports. The assets would be monetized by listing them. This would provide funding for the parent companies to fund new infrastructure projects.

#4 Bonds for infrastructure

The Budget has proposed to notify infrastructure debt funds that can raise money through zero-coupon bonds. At a time when interest rates are all set to climb up, this might turn out to be an interesting investment proposition for retail debt investors as well.

#5 PSU asset monetization and PSU bank recap

Surplus land of government departments as well as public sector enterprises are set to be monetized by way of sale or concession through special purpose vehicles. Besides the Rs 1.75 lakh crore divestment plan and plan to privatize two public sector banks, the Budget also proposes Rs 20,000 crore to recapitalize public sector banks.

What’s in it for your investments?

The stock market cheered the Budget with 5% budget-day jump – a move not seen since 1997. We can attribute the move to 2 broad reasons:  one, stock markets love spending and love deficits. The capex spending and thrust on infrastructure has meant pockets of opportunities in this space.

The other big sector to receive a thumbs-up was the banking space. Pulled down by bad loans for several years now, the expectation of a new lease of life for banks from the asset reconstruction mechanism has heightened prospects for this sector. Public sector recap and asset monetization also provide a boost to the unfavored PSU space.

But we think you have more to take note of in the debt space than equity. Why?

  • One, the high spend means that bond yield trajectory will be up. The bond market reacted immediately to this news. This confirms our debt outlook that interest rates are more likely to move up this year. It will open a spate of opportunities for those of you starved for returns. Focus on accrual/income strategy will likely come to the fore. You can look to us to provide recommendations on this front.
  • Two, you might have access to newer debt options like the infra-zero-coupon bonds or more of hybrid instruments such as InvITs.
  • Three, some of the measures such as a proposed body to buy investment grade and below securities in the debt market may mean slowly moving towards a more liquid debt market. This is good news not just for your debt fund but also for retail investors wanting to tap the debt market directly.

Budget and your personal finances

The Budget 2021 did not deliver any tax breaks. On the other hand, it has introduced procedural changes to ease the tax filing process, reduce the period within which your returns can be picked up for scrutiny, and so on. So far so good.

But for those of you who make massive EPF/VPF contributions and buy ULIPs with high premiums, the Budget 2021 will give you quite the jolt. Here are the key provisions that will impact you on the personal finance front.

The good and the average

  • Interest deduction on affordable housing: If you bought a home that met the criteria for affordable housing (i.e, it should be your first residential property, have stamp duty less than Rs 45 lakh), then you would get a deduction up to Rs 1.5 lakh from the interest you are paying if your loan was sanctioned between April 1 2019 and March 31, 2021. This has now been extended to include loans sanctioned up until March 31, 2022.
  • Removal of the need to file tax returns for those over 75 years: For those 75 years and older, this budget does away with the need to file tax returns. However, based on our understanding of the provisions, it is quite restrictive. The condition is that the person needs to be earning only pension income and interest income from the bank in which he/she is receiving the pension amount. So if you have your pension account in, say, Canara Bank but you have interest income from a deposit in say, SBI or a senior citizens savings scheme, it appears that you would still need to file your returns. Two, you need to give a declaration to the bank with particulars and details. The government will specify what these details are. Three, the government will specify the banks where this filing-exemption is allowed. Given these conditions, the benefit of this provision may not be very wide-reaching. The provision is also unclear on the procedure in the event of tax refunds becoming necessary.
  • DICGC provisions will apply more easily: As we have talked about before, when a bank is floundering, you do not have immediate access to the deposit insurance guarantee. In the Budget 2021, the provisions of the DICGC will be amended so that depositors in a bank will be able to immediately access the insurance if a bank finds itself unable to pay them. While the fine-print is yet to be spelled out, this is a good move, which can prevent depositors’ money being frozen while a resolution is worked out.
  • Dividend income won’t be included in advance tax calculations: This one is pretty straightforward. When you are making your advance tax calculations, you can leave dividend income out of it. Up until now, if you failed to pay the advance tax or it fell short, you would have to bear an interest penalty. In this Budget, you will not have to pay this penalty if the income came from dividends.
  • Gold import duties cut: Domestic gold prices are usually a factor of global gold prices, the exchange rate, and customs duties. This last factor has been reduced in this Budget. Gold currently attracts a 12.5% customs duty as does silver. This will stand reduced to 10% each (7.5% customers duty + 2.5% agriculture infrastructure & development cess). This will effectively reduce the final price of gold and silver. Incidentally, the cess also applies on petrol and diesel, but excise duties on both have been cut to compensate for the cess.

Apart from the above, there are several other provisions on the tax front. A notable one is that the tax department can pick your returns for scrutiny or reassessment only for 3 years unlike the 6 years it is currently. Only in cases where the income escaping the assessment is Rs 50 lakh or higher can the time limit be stretched to 10 years. The procedures for reassessments have also been overhauled. Tax rules for NRIs returning home but holding retirement funds overseas are proposed to be changed to make it easier. We haven’t delved too much into such taxation rules as we don’t claim to be tax experts.

The not-so-good

  • Interest taxed on high EPF contributions: If you’re a high earner, chances are that your EPF contributions are more than Rs 2.5 lakh a year. Or, you could be making high EPF or VPF contributions to take your total above Rs 2.5 lakh a year. In such cases, be prepared to pay tax. The Budget has made provisions to tax interest earned on contributions above Rs 2.5 lakh. Thus, if your contribution in a year is say Rs 3 lakh, the interest earned on Rs 50,000 will be subject to tax. However, it is not yet clear whether this tax needs to be calculated and paid in the year of accrual or accumulated in the final year of withdrawal. In our view, it is likely to be the former. This rule will be effective on contributions made from April 1, 2021. So, if you have been using the EPF as a tax-efficient route to debt investments, you may have to rework contributions if you are keen on reducing the tax impact.
  • Proceeds from ULIPs with premia above Rs 2.5 lakh taxable: To bridge the gap between equity taxation and ULIPs, the Budget 2021 proposes to tax proceeds on ULIPs where premiums are high. Accordingly, for ULIPs issued after Feb 1st, 2021, if the premium you pay is more than Rs 2.5 lakh, the maturity proceeds from the policy will be taxed. This Rs 2.5 lakh can be the premium of a single policy or multiple policies clubbed together. It will not apply to sums received on the death of the insurer. This provision does not affect ULIPs you already have and you will continue to have tax-exempt maturity proceeds from these. It applies on new ULIPs only. While the tax rules are yet to be clearly spelt out, the tax rate is set to be the same as for equity funds. These rules come into effect from the next financial year.

In a nutshell, the Budget 2021 hasn’t given you much in terms of taxes but hasn’t taken anything away either. In other words, carry on as usual!

You can read the full budget speech here.

Also read:

Should you exit HDFC Housing Opportunities fund?

Nifty Analysis on 7th March, 2021

Share on whatsapp
Share via Whatsapp
Share on twitter
Tweet it out
Share on facebook
Share on FB
Share on linkedin
Post on LinkedIn

More like this

Please note that any specific queries on any of our recommendations will be answered ONLY through email. If you are a subscriber, please mail contact@primeinvestor.in.  Only general queries or discussions will be answered through the comment section of the blog. For full details, please refer to this post – How to communicate with PrimeInvestor.

11 thoughts on “Budget 2021 – What’s in it for you?”

  1. Hello ma’am,
    I am working with central government and I save in general provident fund a substantial amount over Rs 2.5 Lacs. Now would that also be covered under this 2.5 lac limit and what about the interest accruing for earlier saved portion.
    Also if it is taxable is it a better option for me to invest in a debt fund as I am 54 years old.

    1. You might need to get clarification on this from your dept. sir. Not sure frm the current proposal. Yes, if tax advantage is lost, some amount in debt funds will help. thanks, Vidya

  2. Hi
    Two questions:
    1. The good quality debt funds were already doing bad for the last few weeks and now these have crashed on the budget day. What is the possible reason for their performance over the last few weeks and the budget day?
    2. What is the outlook going forward for Gold and the various Debt Fund categories?

    Regards
    Raspreet

    1. Hello Sir, Blogs may sometimes take time to respond to. Sorry about that:-) Please send us a ticket if you would like something clarified quickly. When rate cycle turns, yields harden and therefore prices fall. Funds will take a bit to get instruments with higher yields and make good the loss. Nothing needs to be done for this. Please read our article yesterday on what you should do if you are holding various categories of funds (given as a text box in the article). https://primeinvestor.in/a-debt-fund-to-ride-the-changing-debt-scenario/ Our debt and gold outlook remain the same as the one we published beginning of year. thanks, Vidya

    1. There is no specific mention in the tax law on when such interest is taxed. Will be unable to comment on what freefincal opines. We do think it will be on accrual. Not sure why you mean VPF will be attractive. Anything over Rs 2.5 lakh – EPF or VPF will be taxed for interest. thanks, Vidya

  3. saurabh.khurana81

    Hi,

    Thank you for the informative post. The debt funds (ultra-short, short, corporate) have given negative or close to zero returns over the last three months. Why is this so abysmal? Bank interests seem more lucrative! How does one react to this situation in your opinion? Is it time to pull out of these funds and look elsewhere? How will the budget impact these funds over the next year?

    Thanks.

    1. It is par for the course when rate cycle turns. Once it settles, the shorter duration funds will deliver more than banks. The budget’s spendign and borrowing will increase yields and shorter duration funds tend to benefit more in such scenarios. thanks, Vidya

  4. Hello. Thank you for your clarifications on the budget. I still have a doubt on the ULIPs part though. You’ve mentioned that if the annual premium is over 2.50 lakh, then the proceeds will be taxed if the policy holder is alive.

    1. If an individual has 3 ULIP policies in force, annual premium for each policy is 1 lakh. Clubbing 3 premiums together is 3 lakh. But individual premiums are less than 2.50 lakh each. Will maturity proceeds incur tax?

    2. Does this rule apply only on policies that are bought after 1st February 2021? In case of Clubbed ULIP annual premiums prior to 1st Feb 2021 exceeding 2.50 lakh, there is no tax liability on maturity proceeds. Have i understood this right?

    1. Hello sir,

      We’ve actually explained both the points…I guess it wasn’t clear enough, will edit to reflect. The rule applies only for ULIPs issued after Feb 1st. Current ULIPs will not be affected. It applies to the total premium on all ULIPs you have…as we understand it, if you have 3 ULIPs with 1 lakh premium each, then one ULIP will be taxed and the others will be tax-free.

      Thanks,
      Bhavana

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Register for FREE!

Gain instant access to more PrimeInvestor articles, researched products, and portfolios

The essence of PrimeInvestor

Register for FREE!

Gain instant access to more PrimeInvestor articles, researched products, and portfolios

Legal Disclaimer : PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd (with brand name PrimeInvestor) is an independent research entity offering research services on personal finance products to customers. We are a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration: INH200008653). The content and reports generated by the entity does not constitute or is not intended to constitute an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to an offer to buy or sell financial products, units or securities. All content and information are provided on an ‘as is’ basis by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Information herein is believed to be reliable but PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and expressly disclaims all warranties and conditions of any kind, whether express or implied. The services rendered by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd are on a best-effort basis. PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd does not assure or guarantee the user any minimum or fixed returns. PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any of its officers, directors, partners, employees, agents, subsidiaries, affiliates or business associates will not liable for any losses, cost of damage incurred consequent upon relying on investment information, research opinions or advice or any other material/information whatsoever on the web site, reports, mails or notifications issued by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or any other agency appointed/authorised by PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. Use of the above-said information is at the user’s own risk. The user must make his own investment decisions based on his specific investment objective and financial position and using such independent advisors as he believes necessary. All intellectual property rights emerging from this website, blog, and investment solutions are and shall remain with PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd. All material made available is meant for the user’s personal use and such user shall not resell, copy, or redistribute the newsletter or any part of it, or use it for any commercial purpose. PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd, or any of its officers, directors, employees, or subsidiaries have not received any compensation/ benefits whether monetary or in kind, from the AMC, company, government, bank or any other product manufacturer or third party, whose products are the subject of its research or investment information. The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in financial products involves risk. Investments are subject to market risk. Please read all related documents carefully. As a condition to accessing the content and website of PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, available here. This service is not directed for access or use by anyone in a country, especially the USA, Canada or the European Union countries, where such use or access is unlawful or which may subject PrimeInvestor Financial Research Pvt Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement.

Aditya Birla Mutual FundAxis Mutual Fund Baroda Mutual FundBNP Paribas Mutual FundBOI AXA Mutual FundsCanara Robeco Mutual FundDSP Mutual Fund Edelweiss Mutual FundEssel Mutual FundFranklin Templeton Mutual FundHDFC Mutual FundHSBC Mutual FundICICI Mutual FundIDBI Mutual FundIDFC Mutual FundIIFL Mutual FundIndiabulls Mutual FundInvesco Mutual FundITI Mutual FundKotak Mahindra Mutual FundL&T Mutual FundLIC Mutual FundMahindra Mutual FundMirae Asset Mutual FundMotilal Oswal Mutual FundNippon India Mutual FundPGIM Mutual FundPPFAS Mutual FundPrincipal Mutual FundQuant Mutual FundQuantum Mutual FundSahara Mutual FundSBI Mutual FundShriram Mutual FundSundaram Mutual FundTata Mutual FundsTaurus Mutual FundsUnion Mutual FundsUTI Mutual FundsYes Mutual Funds

Equity: Large Cap Funds | Mip Cap Funds | Large And Mid Cap Funds | Small Cap Mutual Funds | Contra Mutual Funds | Dividend Yield | Focused Mutual Funds | Find Top Index Funds | Best Sector Funds | Thematic Mutual Fund | Best Value Mutual Funds | Equity Linked Savings Scheme | Tax Saving Funds
Debt: Banking And PSU Funds | Corporate Bond Funds | Credit Risk Funds Mutual Funds | Dynamic Bond Funds | Floating Rate Funds | Gilt Mutual Funds India | Find Top Liquid Funds In India | Long term debt funds | Low Duration Funds Debt Funds | Medium Duration Debt Funds | Medium To Long Duration Funds | Money Market Debt Funds | Overnight Debt Funds | Short Duration Debt Funds | Ultra Short Term Debt Fund
Hybrid: Aggressive Hybrid Funds | Arbitrage Mutual Funds | Balanced Advantage Mutual Funds | Conservative Hybrid Funds | Dynamic Asset Allocation | Equity Saving Funds | Multi Asset Funds | Multi Asset Allocation

Mutual fund rolling returns by category: Balanced Advantage | Conservative Hybrid Fund | Corporate Bond | Dividend Yield | Dynamic Bond | Equity Linked Savings Scheme | Floating Rate | Index Funds | Large and Midcap fund | Large Cap Fund | Liquid funds | Low Duration | Mid Cap Fund | Multi Cap Fund | Short Duration | Small cap Fund | Solution Oriented – Childrens Fund | Ultra Short Duration

Login to your account
OR