February 2021

Two events have set the stage for a rise in yields, whether the RBI pauses or hikes rates. One, a few weeks ago, the RBI closed the tap that pumped liquidity into the system. That meant no more excess supply of money. This caused an immediate rise in short-term yields, causing mark-to-market losses in some funds over a week or two. In just 2 months, the 3-month government bond moved from 2.9% in December beginning to 3.36% now. This is a sharp move for a shorter tenure bond.
Two, Budget 2021 has decided to retain its market borrowing at Rs 12 lakh crore, same as the pandemic-hit year. It has also provided many novel measures to tap the debt market for infrastructure financing. The 10-year gilt yields climbed sharply as the budget was announced.