The JP Morgan India inclusion finally happened and with effect from June 28, 2024, Indian G-secs will be included in JP Morgan’s GBI-EM Global Diversified Index. What does this mean and how does it impact you as a debt investor?
After bungee jumping off a cliff, it is good to wait for the adrenaline rush to wear off. Indian bond markets are in exactly this situation now. After falling sharply as rates rose, bond prices are pausing to take a breath. In our debt outlook last year we expected rates to continue their upward climb and recommended strategies to play this. During the course of 2023, we think interest rates could top out and stabilise. We tell you what this will mean for your debt portfolio.
As a part of PrimeInvestor’s bond recommendations, we’ve been highlighting attractive investment opportunities in government securities (g-secs) in recent months. We actively track primary auctions of government bonds on the RBI Retail Direct platform to give you these calls. (Read this article on how to buy G-Secs)
Not so long ago, if debt investors in India wanted to get a 7% plus return, they had to go to post office schemes with (poor service and) a long lock-in period like the PPF or GOI Floating Rate Savings Bonds with a 7-year lock-in period. These options, apart from the difficulty of accessing them, required investors to sacrifice liquidity for returns.
India’s market interest rates have been rising very swiftly after the recent mid-cycle rate hike by the RBI. In our earlier analysis we had highlighted that bonds issued by the Central and State governments should now be your first choice as and when primary auctions crop up, as they offer the best combination of low risks with high yields currently.
About 10 days ago, we alerted you about the upcoming opportunities you will have in the bond market as we move up the rate cycle. Today, we are recommending 2 government securities (G-secs) that are out as auction in the RBI Retail Direct portal. You might want to check if your brokerage has the option to buy these.
Beginning now, we will be issuing recommendations on opportunities arising in primary government bond issues to Growth subscribers. These recommendations will be both central govt bonds (called G-Secs) and state development loans (SDLs) and if opportunities are attractive – treasury bills as well.
So what’s ahead for the prime debt outlook 2022? Do we expect rates to now sidle sideways or to continue their climb? Though the onset of Omicron may see the MPC continue to make dovish noises and delay repo rate hikes as much as it can, we think that market interest rates will continue to climb in 2022 irrespective of whether or not MPC acts.
RBI’s new Retail Direct platform which was flagged off in November, offers retail investors a chance to participate in the primary market auctions of Central government and State government securities that the RBI conducts.