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Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause

After bungee jumping off a cliff, it is good to wait for the adrenaline rush to wear off. Indian bond markets are in exactly this situation now. After falling sharply as rates rose, bond prices are pausing to take a breath. In our debt outlook last year we expected rates to continue their upward climb and recommended strategies to play this. During the course of 2023, we think interest rates could top out and stabilise. We tell you what this will mean for your debt portfolio.

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Four passive debt funds to invest right now

Not so long ago, if debt investors in India wanted to get a 7% plus return, they had to go to post office schemes with (poor service and) a long lock-in period like the PPF or GOI Floating Rate Savings Bonds with a 7-year lock-in period. These options, apart from the difficulty of accessing them, required investors to sacrifice liquidity for returns. 

2 safe options to earn 7.4%

India’s market interest rates have been rising very swiftly after the recent mid-cycle rate hike by the RBI.  In our earlier analysis we had highlighted that bonds issued by the Central and State governments should now be your first choice as and when primary auctions crop up, as they offer the best combination of low risks with high yields currently. 

Prime Debt outlook 2022 – Interesting times ahead for debt investors

So what’s ahead for the prime debt outlook 2022? Do we expect rates to now sidle sideways or to continue their climb? Though the onset of Omicron may see the MPC continue to make dovish noises and delay repo rate hikes as much as it can, we think that market interest rates will continue to climb in 2022 irrespective of whether or not MPC acts.

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