debt

Prime Debt outlook 2023: Handling a rate pause

After bungee jumping off a cliff, it is good to wait for the adrenaline rush to wear off. Indian bond markets are in exactly this situation now. After falling sharply as rates rose, bond prices are pausing to take a breath. In our debt outlook last year we expected rates to continue their upward climb and recommended strategies to play this. During the course of 2023, we think interest rates could top out and stabilise. We tell you what this will mean for your debt portfolio.

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Prime recommendation: A credit risk fund to tap better returns

Up until recently, we tended to avoid funds with any level of credit risk let alone pure credit risk funds. The domino effect of the 2018 IL&FS saga on other issuers, funds themselves trying to clean up their portfolios, the risk that the lockdowns imposed on corporate credit quality and the like kept us wary of entering the space.

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Prime Debt outlook 2022 – Interesting times ahead for debt investors

So what’s ahead for the prime debt outlook 2022? Do we expect rates to now sidle sideways or to continue their climb? Though the onset of Omicron may see the MPC continue to make dovish noises and delay repo rate hikes as much as it can, we think that market interest rates will continue to climb in 2022 irrespective of whether or not MPC acts.

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Debt lessons that you may not have learnt yet

If the recent events in the debt space brought to light the liquidity risk arising from lower rated papers, you probably haven’t seen the unfolding of various kinds of risk since September 2018. In 2013, when duration became a risk on the back of rate hikes, money flowed copiously to credit risk over the next 5 years. Now, the cycle has turned. Money is moving to duration from credit risk.

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